You should definitely wait and see before judging. However, most people in the community believe that past performance is a predictor for future performance. It's definitely not which I believe is your point.
But when you have a small pool of qualified applicants because the system itself is a closed system, how do you find new talent? As a GM, your job is on the line and when you have a family that depends on you, you certainly are going to be risk averse.
It's not an easily solved problem.