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analysis for tomorrow's matches from a pro

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#1
jade_

Hey, so someone asked me about my predictions for tomorrow so mostly because I'm bored I thought I'd give my predictions going into tomorrow's matches since I've been watching almost every game in champions and also got clowned for thinking KRU have a good chance to beat SEN, so maybe I can at least explain myself here before getting flamed hahaha.

Also ofc since I mentioned it in the title, I am a pro in EMEA game changers for team chatbanned (maybe getting signed soon O.O), we finished back to back top 5, with wins over G2, Guild and Rix :)

=====

Game 1 - Vision Strikers vs Cloud9

Map veto prediction:

VS -ascent (seems to be their perma-ban rn)
C9 -haven (maybe vision strikers best map, not something I think c9 will risk)

VS +breeze (they picked it into full sense, and c9 looked super dodgy on it)
C9 +icebox (not really sure what they'll pick here, but I think icebox is reasonable to go for because it's a map c9 plays all the time)

VS -split
C9 -bind

Remainder: Fracture (either team could ban split/bind, but i think both will want to go for fracture 3rd since they can be prepared for their opponent, while they can't for the other 2 maps)

Now with the map pool laid out, it's pretty obvious that Vision Strikers will take the game in my opinion, although the maps favour them that much I believe they are just the better team and will be able to win it convincingly. They should be quite fired up to prove themselves after the loss to Fnatic whereas C9 won't exactly have the highest level of confidence after such dodgy lan performance, and I wouldn't be that surprised to see leaf affected again. However, I don't think it's fair to fully count them out, C9 most certainly have a chance.

So overall, I'll say it's 65-35 for Vision Strikers, and the most likely result is a 2-1 for them, but C9 could also surprise on fracture, as well as it could be a 2-0 for VS.

=====

Game Two - Vikings vs Team Secret (this is probably a lot more dodgy of an analysis because I don't really know these teams as well)

Map veto prediction:

VKS -ascent (seems to be a perma-ban for them atm)
TS -bind (got dominated on it by gambit, and vks dominated gambit on it, so it'd probably be an instaloss to play it)

VKS +breeze (not sure how comfortable they are on this map, but after a 13-0 loss it seems unlikely they'd be scared to play TS on it)
TS +haven (idk exactly why lol just seems like the most likely option)

VKS -icebox/split (pretty sure VKS want to play fracture 3rd map, they've left it in twice now and I think they'll do it again to force 3rd onto whichever map they want)
TS -fracture (unlikely they will want to risk it, leaving fracture in the veto in this current state of the game is a very high pressure move and typically shows you have a good fracture, even if it's a bluff it's not really worth the risk to the team on the other side of it - trust me I've done it with my team hehe)

Remainder: Icebox/Split

As I already said, I'm kinda unsure about this game, but I think it's pretty obvious VKS will win, their team will be full of confidence after such a strong game against gambit and with players like sacy, they shouldn't be able to be stopped.

I'll predict roughly 75-25 for VKS, with a 2-0 victory being the most likely outcome, but a 2-1 also possible.

=====

Game 3: Envy vs X10C (Probably the most interesting game :D)

Map veto prediction:

Envy -fracture
X10C -bind (both teams seem to have these as perma-bans)

Envy +haven (maybe a risky guess here, ascent is the most obvious option, but from what I saw Envy looked super off on ascent in both times they played it so I think they'll want to change it up, and with having a vod on X10C compared to no vods on them, it's not as unlikely as it might seem)
X10C +icebox (with a good performance vs VK, I feel X10C will have the confidence to take Envy on icebox - it's never been that strong of a map for Envy so I think Patiphan will be perfectly happy to run around and feast on them with reyna)

Envy -breeze (pretty obvious, their second worst map easily)
X10C -split

Remainder: Ascent (if the first picks go how I assume, I think X10C might see that Envy have low confidence on Ascent and leave it in, or alternatively/additionally, they have now 2 vods on Envy's ascent and their own vod to learn from mistakes, so they'll be going in with a good gameplan and know what to do)

I really don't think it's that unlikely X10C take this game, I see it similar to KRU vs SEN. They're gonna be coming in with a lot of confidence after stomping a very good team in VK, and know exactly what to fix from the previous match, whereas Envy just got quite heavily upset by Acend. With the game having to be played off-stage, I think X10C might not be as hype, but I'm hoping that won't impact them, and assuming it doesn't their chances are really higher than most will rate.

I think it's around 60-40 to Envy, or maybe even 55-45. This series should be going all 3 maps and should be really fun to watch. As I said Envy are more likely, but I'm really feeling the upset so I'm gonna say X10C take this 2-1, losing Haven then winning Icebox and Ascent :D

=====

Hope that was interesting and helps you a bit with understanding what these games should go like. Not that my view is perfect and the vetos will go anywhere close to as I've said, this is just something quick I've done for fun, but I shouldn't be too far off with what happens, because I haven't been too wrong with the predictions I've made in my head up until now hahah ^.^

#2
andrewdamf
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Who Tf is even u (Sorry if im being rude but i really dont know who u are)

#9
iMyw_
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Cant say who tf are you then say sorry if i’m rude lmao

#11
jade_
26
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i mean i did say who i was right at the start tbf

#13
andrewdamf
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I didnt read that, sorry.

#82
PoPanda
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Moron

#3
kwe
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Jade that was really insightful

#5
jade_
4
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<3

#107
array
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Unfortunately totally wrong

#4
Aight
-5
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Nice
Touch grass maybe?
Jkjkjkjk very interesting
Very Good effort

#6
iMyw_
-1
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And youre saying that?

#8
Aight
2
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Ikr!

#7
cartman
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im sorry for ur loss / congrates

#10
kurama3x
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nice

#12
Csgo
-21
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Who the fuck are u + ratio

#15
sank3tsu
14
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respect is nice and he aprecciate it ratio

#80
Faraday
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nice ratio

#14
Joey2448
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You forgot C9 has a 91% win rate on breeze

#18
jade_
2
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yep online maybe, but that doesn't mean it'll translate, as already proven (also probably then unlikely VS pick it I never said this was a high quality post okay just some quick thoughts D:)

#89
Joey2448
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They did prove it on lan against Full Sense beating them on Breeze

#16
sank3tsu
-1
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thx for sharing the infos bro

#20
EU_quiet
-8
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Such shit analysis I'm silver 3 and I could predict faster than this
2-0 C9B
2-0 TS
2-0 NV

Your regards,
EU QUIET
God of the Universe
Savior and messiah of NA
Senior Owner of Valorant and Riot

#29
blicey
0
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TS OMGELLASLAL

#38
EU_quiet
-1
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TS shit on that team today so...

#47
jblancard
-3
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common eu_quite W

#53
turkey
3
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everything about this post is an L

#90
EU_quiet
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Hahahaha bitch I'm bout to be 3/3

#113
turkey
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damn

#110
array
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You got more than a pro. Congrats

#22
andreyoliveira7
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I'm not too confident in VKS winning against TS, besides that i agree with everything

#23
sank3tsu
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same

#27
jade_
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could you explain why you think that? as I just said in the comment below imo it seems quite obvious vikings would win pretty easily from what I've seen but I'd love to have my opinion changed

#78
Meghnad-
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.

#112
array
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Just like in iceland, Vikings just went on having fun

#24
jade_
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you think so? I didn't catch much of CR vs TS but secret were pretty embarrassing against gambit, whereas vikings were highly impressive in both their matches therefore it makes sense it should be the most one sided match of the day, but I'd love to hear why you think that :D

#25
EU_quiet
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Bro just going off stats 😳 😭

#32
jade_
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got no clue what the stats even are honestly, I've just been watching the matches, only 'stats' I've looked at were the pick ban phases lol

#46
Mca
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We have a feeling that Riot decisions really destroyed Brazil mentally in this tournament, also Murizzz Said that It was the worst tournament that he had played in his life, and Murizzz played a Lot of tournaments i Can say in various games.
TS looked good in the matches and After that heartbreaking loss against Gambit we have a feeling that this could even got more into the mental states of the players.

If VKS doesn't play well they Will probably lose to the strenght of TS Players.

#59
jade_
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interesting, thank you for the insight

#104
Mca
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And i was right, the strenght of DubStep destroyed us.

#51
TKRamen
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I don't think Secret would ban out bind, as it has been one of their OG maps ever since the start of Valorant (when they were with Bren). They've even stated a lot that Breeze is their worst map, winning less than a third of the time. I actually think they might even pick Bind if they can study Vikings play more, and I think that Icebox will probably be the 3rd map since both teams seem to show their strength on it, but thats more I wanna see it rather than it being very likely.

#56
andreyoliveira7
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I've seen too good utility usage, good teamwork and good aim. If they play against us like x10 did, with a lot of counter strats and confident they can and probably will upset. In Brazil we have an expression that is playing against postman, that means playing against non professional teams, Team Secret ain't postman, they have experience, they have teamplay and good aim, plus they can have an confident agression with utilities, it's a dangerous matchup.

#26
acquracy
0
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do you agree that X10 will start to play more aggressive against NV
I recall someone mentioning that, NV didn't seem to organized to defend against fast and coordinated pushes, (not completely sure) and some of those coordinated plays did work in some of those rounds
thoughts?

if leaf starts taking aim duels and wins, a lot of the set plays made by VS might be disorganized, I looked over some of the past vods of VS games, and most the rounds nAts lurk seemed to be very effective and won them many rounds. So do u think leaf might play the role of causing disruption and have the similar affect to nAts

maybe I'm just overthinking stuff and being one head, but these are my thoughts

#41
jade_
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Yeah definitely, and should be why they make sure Icebox is picked. From what I remember from watching the matches, at least on ascent both Envy and X10C were quite hesitant, whereas in the game today vs VK, X10C played incredibly aggressively and it worked unbelievably well, so as I said before with such a fast win they should be coming in with confidence ready to do the same thing again.

I also could see leaf's disruption being super powerful for sure, correct me if I'm wrong of course I didn't watch thaaat much of NA LCQ but I thought leaf was mainly having crazy impact with Jett, especially on breeze pushing mid or elbow, area's like that, whereas from the games here at lan it's felt a little different and like he's just doing a lot less, and his Skye seems like a very similar level to his Jett when that wasn't the case before, so I'm not convinced he will truly throw off vision strikers and stop them. Especially with the match being very high stakes and VS being such a well respected team, I don't think he's gonna magically be back in his online form of pure domination, but we'll have to see and that's why I still give them a decent chance of around 35% :D

#52
fatpoipoiiii
1
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Sea team always doing aggresive play. If we dont play aggresively, we will out of comfort zone and overthink a lot like fullsense.

#73
acquracy
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Yea, you have a good point, where most of his impact is on Jett. It also kinda relays the pressure on Xeppa to find space on more maps. But hopefully, we get to see some cool setups coming from C9, and hopefully, these games are certified bangers.

#30
Tosspoa
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VKS will probably pick Icebox

#37
fatpoipoiiii
1
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Thank u for ur analyst! Its really interesting reading analyst from pro player. Also ignore those hate comment they probably just trolling

#44
jade_
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yep lollll, thank you!! ^.^

#39
Yeetus
2
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I agree with everything here except X10 having a high chance to beat NV. VK's mental was completely shattered after the Acend situation, which is why the lost to X10 imo, and Victor had to play from a 34°F room while possible not feeling well. If that is fixed by tomorrow's game, NV will comfortably beat X10 like they did last time imo.

#42
jade_
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maybe VK played bad sure, but X10 still entered with crazy confidence from the first round, playing like there is absolutely nothing to lose, and against the previous finalists in Envy who should realistically be huge favourites, I can't see why they wouldn't play like that again

not sure about Victor's situation, but honestly he is not one of their main players and they shouldn't look so poor just because of him, so I don't think they'll be back in tip top shape just because of him getting a warmer room, but we'll see, they are of course still favourites in the series so them winning isn't a surprise

#106
Yeetus
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sorry I ever doubted you queen

#40
Sprouts
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Pretty good analysis, but the only thing I don't see happening is VS banning Ascent immediately

Ascent's looked like their instaban this tournament so far, but it's mostly been because Full Sense and Fnatic are both pretty good on that map, with C9B also choosing to instaban the map in their matches

If I were Vision Strikers, I'd choose to instaban Bind/Fracture in this matchup instead of Ascent

#43
jade_
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I really wouldn't say Fnatic are good at ascent honestly, but I'm not sure that's the point. Vision Strikers are coming in as the better team, and have to play like it. That means sticking to their own game and playing the maps they like the most. Even if C9 might be bad at Ascent and therefore won't pick it first, that doesn't matter because they should be picking and banning to what they are most comfortable with, because they should feel that they can beat C9 on any map so it only makes sense to go for your best ones

#45
Philosopher_Stone
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Yo jade, did you expect VK and Sentinels to go out today? What where the chances in your mind?

#60
jade_
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VK not at all, if they were in I would've probably predicted them to make it to playoffs but actually yes for SEN hehe, i would've probably said it's like 55-45 to SEN, similar to how I feel about X10C vs Envy today

#66
Philosopher_Stone
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Damn okayyyyyy got my eyes on X10 then! :D

#48
thatpower
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tbh envy 2-0. they way x10 played looked very vision strikers and yay himself said that they are really comfortable against that playstyle. but anything could happen maybe x10 2-1 or even 2-0 lol.

#61
jade_
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definitely could see an Envy 2-0, they are the favourites after all but as you said anything is possible at this tournament! :D

#49
yaiima0
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Good analysis! Who do you think is gonna win it all?

#62
jade_
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Thanks! I've been a Fnatic fan for more than a year now (since SUMN FC) so it's easy for me to say they will make it all the way, but realistically it could be almost any of the teams in top 8. The best bet is probably Liquid, but what I really hope for is just that the games are competitive and close <3

#50
Mortadelo
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Great analysis, and great job farming ChatBanned fans too (Or what ever the new org, is I hope is a big one) keep it up

#63
jade_
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hehe thanks so much! <3

#54
Gomes255
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Agree with most, only thing I'm confident on is that team secret will put up a good fight tho and that they won't be as weak even against Sacy, o nosso Deus careca, at least imo.. Envy-X10c I don't even wanna say much, it's na's best chance to playoffs, going for:
VS 60-40 C9B
VKS 65-35 TS
NV 70-30 X10c

But holy fuck jade, good one!
Hope to see the contract gif soon 👀

#64
jade_
0
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I'd like to see them put up a fight for sure, the closer the matches are, the more fun they are to watch! It is the game I'm most unsure about, so hopefully they can prove me wrong. Thanks as well!! Gif should be coming up quite soon indeed 👀

#76
Gomes255
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What's certain is that today's gonna be a hectic day and I love to see these minor region show they aren't just "warm ups" or filler teams and TS does have some good players so keep an 👁 on them, we'll see later today how your predictions went :P
Okok, excited to see! got any hints? Jkjk.. Unless...

#55
JohnCenaFan2021
1
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Tbh TS vs VKS should be 65-35 or 60-40 in favor of VKS.
TS is composed of a lot of experienced LAN players, especially JessieVash. VKS is also definitely banning Icebox, since Asian teams pretty much know how to play that map, as TS beat Gambit 13-6 in that map. TS is also banning Breeze most likely since that map isn't exactly their best map.
VKS -Ascent
TS -Breeze

VKS +Bind
TS +Haven

VKS -Icebox
TS -Fracture

Split is the remaining map.
Most likely gonna be a 2-1 for VKS in all honesty, but this series could go either way since both these teams have a lot of pride on the line above all else.

#65
jade_
1
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That's fair, thank you for your insight :D! As I said, I'm not all that sure about this matchup, hopefully I'm wrong and it will be a close and interesting match ^.^

#57
kobs_0
0
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tl;dr - VKs 2-1 in a close series, TS stand a chance // VKS stand a better chance than TS against Acend

  • VS 2-1 in a nail-biter, mid-round calls from VS are better, overall skill from c9 is better --- TL against either will be LIT
  • Envy 2-1 x10, they looked trash against Acend and x10 could honestly take this - Gambit probably wipe the floor against either.

i have a feeling VKS TS will be a lot closer than that - TS kept it close against Gambit, by not being blown out 2-0, yeah ok they got 13-0'd...

I still have VKS winning, but a 2-1 seems likely. I also had TS (as Bren) making playoffs in M3 before they couldn't make it - so I wouldn't underrate this team... Having said that, I also think VKS stand a MUCH better chance against Acend in playoffs.

For the other two games, based on previous results - c9/vs could be a really close 2-1, similar to that c9/fnc series (11-13, 13-11, 12-14) or something like that, I give the edge to VS for mid-round calling, rather than being better overall. I'd consider c9 to be more skilled, but game-knowledge wise.

That Envy game will be interesting. They looked super shaky, I made the joke of "they look like they haven't prepared anything since losing to gambit" - they were completely atrocious. Acend didn't look much better to be honest - but with two below-average performances has to end in someone winning, right?
Envy and x10 is sure to impress, unless for some stupid reason envy hid some stuff just to hopefully beat whoever x10/vk and get into playoffs. If this is true, envy 2-1 (saving more), if not x10 2-1, yeah, I said it, x10 winning? what?! yeah.

In any case, I'd rather Envy win, as an Envy v Gambit rematch would be a great game and it's a true shame to see SEN have lost and deny the SEN/FNC rematch. But super well done to KRU, super happy for them - see if they can take more than a couple pistols over FNC this time round ;)

#67
jade_
1
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I've heard from many people now that I seem to be underrating TS, I'm looking for them to prove me wrong and do some good damage against VKS :D Agree completely with you on the C9/VS game and Envy/X10C as well, it would be super fun for them to rematch Gambit for storylines, but it isn't looking that likely for them :(

No matter what happens the playoffs will be great though and I'm excited to see whoever makes it through!!

#114
kobs_0
0
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I would like to proclaim, there is a reason why I left those "could take this" in those, those games today were insane, and like I said in my original, I'm really not shocked that x10 took that against a shaky envy

The VS we saw today however, did surprise me - very wp to c9.

#58
mdz
0
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great predictions, i think ur mostly right but im having a hard time buying the envy upset since they won their first encounter with x10 very convincingly. i see what u mean tho and would love to see x10 to play-offs

#70
jade_
0
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ty <3 I see completely where you're coming from, it is kinda hard to understand with how the first match went, but the X10C I saw against VK looked completely different to the one in their opening match, so to me it makes more sense they will continue to play with confidence and as if they have nothing to lose rather than to return to being hesitant.

#68
Jing
0
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I agree with number 2, and i agree with the analysis of game 3 but i dont think yay will let the upset happen, he will pop of for a quick 2-0 imo. Maybe im a biased c9 fan but i cant see leaf underperforming again and i think c9 will win that game because i dont feel like they are a team that gets nervous and more so see them losing to fnc was because leaf had a rare off day

#71
jade_
1
Frags
+

That's fair enough, yay and leaf are both very good players but have both been quite disappointing here at champions, so I want to go off what I've seen in the recent times rather than what they've done in the past, but I'm more than happy to be proven wrong :D

#69
luisenri
0
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what do you think about fnatic vs KRU? >.<

#72
jade_
1
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I'd need to give it more thought, but probably a 2-1 for Fnatic with it being very close, I see Fnatic picking and taking fracture quite easily to start but then the other 2 maps (maybe split picked by KRU and bind/haven as decider?) being super close, and KRU could definitely do what they did to SEN another time :)

#74
titanwithpp
1
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+

I wonder if you made Pickems and how surprised you've been since the tournament has become so unpredictable. Thanks for the insight though, I somehow feel like the results could honestly just go in any direction.

#87
jade_
0
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my pickems weren't the best, i did get group B right but the rest had some really dodgy choices (I had crazy racoon making it out of group C O.O)

#75
KoreanOverlord
0
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I think VS bans fracture

#77
shyftnot
1
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I HECKIN' LOVE CHATBANNED.

#85
jade_
0
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<3

#79
bananarama2233
0
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Great performance in VCT GC btw :)). y'all are improving

#86
jade_
0
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<3

#81
sundaymondaytuesday
-4
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Great effort but bad predictions. You should not only rely in stats but also momentum and I think TS and X10 have that

#83
lilcheese
1
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That was a nice read actually

#88
jade_
1
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<3

#84
FightWasTaken
0
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common jade_ W to be honest

#91
Gomes255
0
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Jade in shambles rn

#93
jade_
0
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+

hey i just got the pick ban mostly right for x10 and envy >:( hahaha

#95
manca
1
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+

so since you missed the first 2 preds that means nv will lose............. shit

#103
Gomes255
0
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+

oh shit mbmb you mostly got the pick ban sry sry
the pain in the "hahaha"

#92
glxy_room
0
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Now we know pros aren’t trolling when they say weird preds on Twitter

#94
jade_
0
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+

x)

#96
xqcRage
0
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+

Thank you for this, I just bet all my medication money to X10.

#97
jade_
0
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+

i wish you luck

#99
xqcRage
0
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+

Sorry but I dont wish you luck for this one lol!

#98
Origin
0
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+

kinda asking for a lot but can you do this for c9 TL and ACE Secret was a really good read

#100
jade_
0
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thanks! i was thinking of doing tomorrow's games anyway, so guess i probably will ^.^

#102
Origin
0
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kk ty ty

#101
Midnightskyyy
0
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+

TEAM SECRET 2-0d TEAM VIKINGS LOL

#105
vnvodich
3
Frags
+

Have you considered creating an alt account name "jinx_" 😂 ?

#109
Easy_for_MWZERA
0
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+

LOL

#111
jade_
2
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+

I GOT ONE GAME RIGHT LEAVE ME ALONE :(

#108
array
1
Frags
+

That shows why teams have analysts in teams lol

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