I'll try my best:
Aim is based off of two factors, HS% and K/D, scaled 60/40.
Clutch is based off of two factors, Clutches per Round and Clutch%, scaled 50/50.
Support is based off of Assists per Round.
Fragging is based off of ACS and KPR, scaled 50/50.
Entry is based off of FKPR and FK/FD, scaled 80/20.
Consistency is based off of K/D and KAST%, scaled 60/40.

For each stat, a player gets a rating out of roughly 100 (some exceed 100) based on z-scoring. The average player has around a rating of 70-75. The distribution is slightly different in some stats so the exact formula for each is variable, but for instance, assists per round is calculated by (73 + 12 * ((APR - 0.2876978417) / 0.09682927435) ), where the last 2 numbers are the mean and standard deviation, respectively.

Finally, a player's overall rating is slightly adjusted between roles. For example, an Initiator is weighed 10% Aim, 10% Clutch, 35% Support, 20% Fragging, 5% Entry, and 20% Consistency. On the other hand, a Duelist is weighed at 20% Aim, 10% Clutch, 5% Support, 30% Fragging, 20% Entry, and 15% Consistency.

Hello all,
Some of you may have seen the rating system that I made a couple days ago, using stats to weigh 6 attributes (Aim, Clutch, Support, Fragging, Entry, Consistency). Since then I've tweaked the formulas a bit, now the ratings are on average higher for everyone, as well as some slight adjustments to the weightings for the Duelist role, as it was being slightly overvalued.

The current top 10 globally across all events (basically kick off/masters and split 1):

1. luk xo (92)
2. Jemkin (91)
3. Cryo (90)
4. aspas (89)
5. xeus (88)
6. mada (88)
7. kaajak (88)
8. dos9 (87)
9. Famouz (86)
10. Wo0t (86)

With the updated formula, I tried a new set of data: EMEA Stage 1. Here are the top 10:

1. MiniBoo (96)
2. Wo0t (92)
3. marteen (91)
4. RieNs (88)
5. kaajak (87)
6. LeWn (86)
7. SUYGETSU (85)
8. xeus (85)
9. kamo (85)
10. nAts (84)

Let me know if you guys are curious about any specific player's rating, or individual attributes.

signed

there were some horrible tech issue in map one and apparently it was bad enough to postpone the rest of the matches until another day.

that's pretty fair, i just didn't really know how else to measure aim but i guess its not super important to a player's overall rating

It's only used for the Aim factor, and is not weighed at 100% within that as K/D is also used to calculate the Aim rating. Also Aim is in general weighed less than the other factors.

Yeah just off the stats he's been an anomaly so far.

Through assists per round. The exact formula to get a rating out of 100 is 111.9*APR + 38.25

It's weighed at 35% for Initiators, 30% for Controllers, and 5% for Duelists/Sentinels.

The full Sentinel weighting is: 15% Aim, 10% Clutch, 5% Support, 30% Fragging, 10% Entry, 30% Consistency.

i stand corrected

recency bias goes crazy, y’all are completely making newzera out to be a worse player than he was. governor is astronomically worse by every metric.

1.21

good idea

Hello all,
I've been working on a new rating system that rates the player on each team roughly on a scale of 100. It takes into 6 factors: Aim, Clutch, Support, Fragging, Entry, and Consistency. Each factor is given a score out of 100 for each player, and is weighed unequally to determine an overall rating. The weightings also differ between roles: for example, Duelists weigh Entry more than Initiators, while Controllers weigh Support higher than Sentinels. All of the ratings are based on the players' stats from VLR, using: HS%, K/D, Clutches per round, Clutch%, APR, KPR, ACS, FK/FD, FKPR, and KAST%.

I can share the google Sheets to anyone interested, but here is the top ten list of players across three regions (not including China bc the advanced stats aren't there):

1. lukxo 87
2. Jemkin 86
3. aspas 84
4. Cryo 83
5. mada 83
6. dos9 82
7. xeus 82
8. kaajak 82
9. v1c 81
10. MiniBoo 81

Here are the top 10s for each region:

Americas

1. lukxo 87
2. aspas 84
3. Cryo 83
4. mada 83
5. v1c 81
6. keznit 79
7. s0m 79
8. dgzin 78
9. zekken 78
10. trent 78

EMEA

1. xeus 82
2. kaajak 82
3. MiniBoo 81
4. Wo0t 81
5. Derke 80
6. SUGYETSU 80
7. Keiko 80
8. marteen 79
9. florescent 79
10. RieNs 78

Pacific

1. Jemkin 86
2. dos9 82
3. Famouz 81
4. HYUNMIN 80
5. Karon 80
6. Primmie 79
7. invy 78
8. Sylvan 78
9. Foxy9 77
10. BuZz 77

Thoughts? Overall I think it does a decent job. Comment if you want the rating of a specific player or team, or DM me for the google sheet or the exact calculation of ratings.

They've been running Tejo/Breach on Fracture and Lotus

keep in mind too that the Chinese league only started tracking VLR rating in week 2 or 3 (I think?) so their ratings might not all be accurate. That being said slowly is a beast.

hot take but they should just stay as is and try to improve for split 2 / maybe make a playoff push if you win against LEV, just for experience.

Are you really dropping any of the players rn? mada has shown the most potential. FNS is retiring by the end of the year and theres no alternatives rn; and you're obviously not dropping s0m. Ethan has still shown to be an extremely solid player. brawk is maybe the most likely but he was also considered THE BEST initiator in T2 next to Verno, it's entirely possible that any other t2 alternative would be even worse.

Keep their heads up, prac and grind for the LEV game, and if that doesn't work out, keep grinding for Split 2.

what is cascade picking?

Raze, Brim, Breach, KAY/O have been some of his most-picked agents and he's shown consistently the ability to frag as well as IGL on them (except for Raze) in the past.

recency bias goes crazy, yall was not saying this when he top fragged and had like 35 kills in a map last match. Hell he even top fragged map 1 today.

Lowkey with any kind of coding problem ask an AI

G2 is killing their group as expected. C9 is actually looking pretty good, picked up 2 wins against bad teams but their loss against MIBR was really close. MIBR is looking quite good too. NRG and LEV are both kinda disappointing, IIRC their only wins have been against FUR. They play each other, winner basically qualifies to top 4.

For the other Group, LOUD has been super disappointing, v1nny has been kinda garbage (no offense). EG and 2G are also not looking great, it kinda sucks that one of them get to qual. SEN, 100T, and KRU have all been good.

Is this based on stats, or just subjective rankings?

the fuck happened to hawksinho

Isn't he performing better as non-IGL rn? I though kellyS was IGL for global.

fixed

(All rosters are in order of Controller - Sentinel - Duelist - Initiator - Flex. IGL is bolded.)
Here are my ideas for rosters, and approximate seeding:

1. China: CHICHOO - Smoggy - ZmjjKK - nobody - slowly
2. Russia: Shao - nAts - Jemkin - Kr1stal - Chronicle
3. Turkey: MrFaliN - Alfajer - xeus - RieNs - Wo0t
4. South Korea: Karon - Meteor - BuZz - free1ng - Munchkin
5. USA: valyn - leaf - Cryo - Trent - s0m
6. Chile: Melser - Shyy - Keznit - Mazino - kiNgg
7. Brazil: pANcada - Less - Aspas - cauanzin - artzin
8. Canada: zander - FNS - mada - eeiu - JonahP
9. Indonesia: mindfreak - BerserX - Famouz - Kushy - f0rsaken
10. Thailand: thyy - JItBoyS - primmie - Crws - Killua
11. Poland: PROFEK - kamyk - kajaak - MOLSI - paTiTek
12. Philippines: Papi - Wild0reoo - Jremy - JessieVash - invy
13. Japan: Sugarz3ro - SyouTa - Meiy - CLZ - Dep
14. Taiwan: Spring - happywei - TvirusLuke - SpiritZ1 - Yuicaw

These are only using Tier 1 players. Adding tier 2 players, here are 2 more possible rosters:

15. Singapore: Juicy - wayne - Jinggg - nephh - Deryeon
16. UK: Boaster - benjyfishy - Keiko - soulcas - Mistic

Any thoughts? I don't have the greatest valorant knowledge so do you guys have any thoughts on other potential teams, or changing any players or seedings?

wasn't victor signed?

What are some players that fit this category?
Reading threads about Tacolilla and purp0 prompted this thread. soulcas jumps to mind too.

Any others?

what happened to caydeN?

Map 1: FUR 13-8 NRG
heat with 25 kills, s0m with 26

Map 2: NRG 13-10 FUR
FNS drops 23/16/4 to lead his team to a victory

Map 3: NRG 13-5 FUR
Ethan and Mada each with a 20 piece, s0m with 15/5/15, raafa goes 3/17

Haven: Kingg Neon, Demon1 Iso, C0M Sova, Rossy Omen, Tex Cypher
Lotus: Kingg Omen, Demon1 Iso, C0M Sova, Rossy Breach, Tex Raze
Ascent: Kingg Omen, Demon1 Jett, C0M Sova, Rossy KAY/O, Tex Killjoy
Pearl: Kingg Neon, Demon1 Astra, C0M Tejo, Rossy Breach, Tex Vyse

lmao ty <3

some chatgpt and some claude

i genuinely don't remember doing that T_T

thanks again! that’s an intriguing concept and you’ve explained it pretty well.

I’m only a little familiar with what youre talking about with bayes, is it the conditional probability one where it’s like p(a|b) is something? (id google but cant rn) and so it’s like the probability of winning a round given that there is a certain economy difference?

i’m out of the house rn but i’ll read into it when i’m home. but I agree that economy is far more easily defined than momentum and would make for a deeper analysis, would’ve been better in hindsight.

thank you so so much again, i’ll msg you if i have any further questions. 💚

that’s a fair point and probably accounts for a large portion of why my hypothesis is working out well so far. maybe economy data from the vlr website can be used? itd be tricky tho.

Thanks for the feedback tho!

good points! i want to in the future definitely implement something accounting for them if i want to spend more time on it. tysm for reading thru!

IB advanced functions

Thanks for the feedback! Yes, I’m aware that the data returned from this may not fully reflect the nature of momentum, but in my opinion thats fine, because the concept of momentum itself is so subjective anyway. Plus IB doesn’t care at all what the data is, all it cares about is the statistical analysis portion, so realistically it won’t matter too much.

But you make really good points about round variability and team strength. If i were to spend more time on this project I would look into parsing economy data from vlr.gg and implementing that somehow. On a side note do you think you could explain the “normalization constant” idea a bit more? is it just kind of averaging the win-probability with equal economy/ult count and unequal economy?

As to team strength for my data set I wanted to pick teams with a decently high or decently low overall win rate, as well as some ~50% win rate teams; this would give a rough indicator of how good they are; beyond that I feel like there are too many factors and not enough reward in terms of more accuracy to try and adjust for it.

Once again thanks for reading and I appreciate the feedback a ton. <3

The code is now on GitHub: https://github.com/Flame4Game/VLR-momentum-finder/

(If yall were interested in trying it out)

thanks! yeah i wasn't even thinking about it that way tbh thats kinda cool, and probably further proves the hypothesis that momentum does indeed matter

For school, but they only care about the mathematical analysis part, they don't care about the data itself, so I want to like expand on it in the future as my own project.

Hi all,
I've been pursuing a math project about analyzing the effect of momentum on round outcome in VALORANT.

Essentially I'm looking at in the last 5 rounds played, how many were won? And for each state (0/5, 1/5, etc.), how likely is it to win the next round?

So I've built some code to parse the VLR website and analyze momentum from a certain amount of matches. It works by looking at a team's matches page, extracting a certain amount of matches, then looking at the round-by-round data, counting each occurrence of each momentum state, and adding them up.

If that doesn't make sense, here's a sample input/output:

What is the team number?
2359
How many matches back are you looking to analyze? (maximum: 50)
36
Here is the momentum data you're looking for for team number 2359 in 36 matches:
Team Name: LEVIATÁN
5/5 win streak: 52 successful cases out of 84 total (61.90% success rate)
4/5 win streak: 162 successful cases out of 288 total (56.25% success rate)
3/5 win streak: 246 successful cases out of 452 total (54.42% success rate)
2/5 win streak: 205 successful cases out of 403 total (50.87% success rate)
1/5 win streak: 114 successful cases out of 236 total (48.31% success rate)
0/5 win streak: 26 successful cases out of 70 total (37.14% success rate)

Calculating overall round winrate...

Overall Round Winrate for LEVIATÁN:
Rounds Won: 1059
Total Rounds: 1993
Winrate: 53.14%

This is all the matches from LEV from the beginning of 2024 to now.

So far the data shows a clear correlation between momentum and round win probability. I'm still in the progress of debugging the code, as it for some reason does not show perfect results all the time, but I like it so far.

If you guys want to see the code, or have any advice on how to approach the eventual analysis of the data from a statistical viewpoint, then I'd be elated to hear your feedback. Thanks for reading!

typical anguibok W

i don’t think they’re supposed to play 5, its swiss so you get matched up with people with the same record, and everyone else has lost a game

I feel like if you're throwing numbers out there you should at least back it up for who you think is better.

Aspas and Derke probably still have better careers all time but it's at least close.

Maybe Less above CHICHOO all time? I'm not too sure at all tbh.

Smokes all time you've got MaKo for sure imo, then mindfreak, Marved, paNcada, Karon as contenders, but Smoggy winning 2 titles as at worst the 3rd best player on the team surely puts him above them?

s1mon IDEK where to start, f0rsaken Chronicle above him as a flex for sure? Maybe RB is in Convo as well. I really don't know.

as IGLs all time looking at international winners there's Boaster, saadhak, FNS, Boostio, johnqt, Munchkin, Ange1, I think only saadhak Boaster and FNS have cases to be above a 2-time winner all time.

Overall as a team only FNC, LOUD, GenG, OPTC, and EG come close no? So minimum top 6. I have them at around the 3-4 range personally, with FNC and OPTC at the top (this is very biased tho).

post this after they lose not after his second half gave them the win

Aye thank you so so much for this bro youre a fucking lifesaver

Hello all,
I want to use the API to pull match results but I don't have much experience with this stuff at all.

For instance when I try to pull the match FNC vs LOUD from 2023,
https://www.vlr.gg/248270/fnatic-vs-loud-valorant-champions-2023-playoffs-ubqf

And I try to use the url https://vlrggapi.vercel.app/match?id=248270

It doesn't work.

Do you guys know how to fix this, or else any youtube tutorial on how to use the API (I can't find any)?

5-6th place curse is real