This is mostly because of the guard situation. The guard looks to be dissolving and disbanding because of budget and internal issues. Lets assume guard wants do go through with it despite the riot stimulus check, would that even be possible, since its a partnership league and not a franchise spot, wouldnt riot have to approve any complete buyouts from the team to compete in vct?
I think its a very interesting situation.
there is no franchising for ascension teams. the top one/two from each region in americas compete with other top teams (from brazil, latam north and south) and then the winner of that will be franchised for 2 years. the teams that are franchised already wil be franchised for at least 4 years (teams like loud, c9, all of those teams). challengers teams will stay in challengers next year and go through the process again unless they are underperforming and dont make relelgation. so if the guard makes it through and the company dissolves, the guard would still have their spot. honestly, its the players. thats the difference between challengers and franchise. franchise starts with orgs given a spot and they choose the players and challengers the players have to earn their spot for their orgs. its like a 180.
turtle troop are doing really well despite being orgless so the org doesnt matter.
all that being said i think most of the guard members will be picked up by already franchised teams.
Discord