i'll venmo u $5 if this happens

also if LEV beats DRX 2-0 i'll venmo the first 3 people to reply to this comment with an L (AFTER THE MATCH ENDS) $5 each

valid take but i find it very difficult to give any team less than a 25% chance at this level of competition

definitely gold 2 peak but currently silver 3

if LEV beats DRX 2-0 come back and downvote this comment as much as possible

if DRX 13-0's LEV come back to this post please and ty i'm feeling a 13-0 today

40% DRX 2-0 LEV
35% DRX 2-1 LEV
20% LEV 2-1 DRX
5% LEV 2-0 DRX

my pick: DRX 2-0 LEV, one map is relatively competitive (somewhere between 13-8 and 13-11) and the other is not (13-6 or worse)

25% OPTC 2-0 XSET
35% OPTC 2-1 XSET
25% XSET 2-1 OPTC
15% XSET 2-0 OPTC

my pick: OPTC 2-1 XSET, OPTC wins a close map 1 (13-10, 13-11 or 14-12), XSET wins a competitive but not super close map 2 (13-8 or 13-9) and OPTC comfortably wins map 3 (13-4 to 13-7)

random bold prediction: LEV starts off very strong with an 8-4 half on map 1, DRX comes back to win 13-10, and then DRX 13-0 LEV on map 2

congratulations to DRX for achieving the first international 13-0 since Champions 2021

btw, due to the way the bracket is laid out, it's not possible for all 3 EMEA teams to finish top 3 (one team from the other side of the bracket will make it to upper finals which is guaranteed top 3)

because of this, if either FNC or FPX finishes top 3, they are guaranteed to qualify. great post though!

I didn't see this before, my apologies, although there are a couple errors I noticed in your post. Thank you though! I'll leave a quick comment on yours

Seeing as all 3 of the EMEA teams in Copenhagen will be competing today, I thought it would be fitting to look into each team's path to Champions.

7 of the 8 EMEA teams that will be participating in the LCQ have been locked in; out of the 3 teams that are currently competing in Copenhagen, 2 will directly qualify to Champions, and 1 will be sent to compete in the LCQ, depending on each team's performance in the Masters playoffs. Here are the scenarios:

Current VCT points:
FunPlus Phoenix: 200 points
FNATIC: 125 points
Guild Esports: 50 points

Since the most likely scenario is that Guild will be the team that is sent to the LCQ, sending the other 2 teams to Champions, I will focus on the scenarios for Guild first to make things simpler.

Guild needs at LEAST a top 4 finish to secure a spot in Champions, but even that may not be enough. This is because Guild needs to make up at least 75 points of ground to catch up to FNC, and 5th-6th only gives 50 more points than 7th-8th.

• With a top 2 finish, Guild will guarantee themselves a spot in Champions.
• With a 3rd place finish, the only scenario in which Guild does not qualify to champions is if FNC places 1st or 2nd AND FPX places 4th (it is not possible for all 3 EMEA teams to finish top 3), in which case FNC will easily take 1st in the standings and FPX will earn enough points to stay ahead of Guild.
• With a 4th place finish, Guild would need to either finish above FNC and/or FPX would need to place 7th-8th (I believe Guild would then win the tiebreaker with FPX due to Masters placement).
• With a 5th-8th finish, Guild will not qualify to Champions.

If Guild fails to qualify, then obviously FNC and FPX will both qualify. What happens in the scenarios where Guild qualifies for Champions? If Guild qualifies as shown above, FNC has to both finish top 4 AND finish higher than FPX to qualify for Champions, in which case they will earn at least 100 more circuit points than FPX, allowing them to make up for FPX's current 75 point lead. Otherwise, FPX will qualify over FNC, since 5th-6th only gives 50 more points than 7th-8th, which is not enough to make up the difference.

Which 2 of the 3 EMEA teams above do you guys think will qualify to Champions, and which team will be sent to face the dreaded LCQ?

just wanted to let you guys know that if you look at the VCT circuit point standings, it shows XIA and LOUD in the standings for every region instead of just their own

Group A winner's match links to the Group B winner's match

why are you getting downvoted

told you

C9W 3-1 SR in the rematch

C9W 2-0 dart monkeys

C9W 3-1 TBD

100T 3-2 ACE

C9W 2-0

C9W 2-0 TBD

small typo:

"The final games of the playoffs begin next weekend. XSET vs. OpTic determines one team heading to Copenhagen, and the loser will face the winner of NRG and 100T for the final spot." should say FaZe instead of 100T, great article though!

why did you get downvoted

wall duration 8s -> 10s
healing from wall 50 -> 75

flash duration increase 1.1s -> 1.5s

healing from molly 50 -> 75

ult can be cancelled by pressing x again, still has to go through the full animation
half of shields lost during phoenix ult are restored (if you start with full shields and lose it, you respawn with 25; if you start with 40 shields and end with 20, you respawn with 30)

ah, alright. in that case maybe it's something one of the VLR editors can fix? if any of them are seeing this

both teams qualified for Stage 2 through the upper bracket of the second open qual

both teams qualifying for masters too

Obviously, this likely doesn't end up mattering for anything since G2 surely qualifies for LCQ, but why did OGLU place 4th and G2 place 5th?

Here's the section from the rulebook:

"In the event that two or more Teams are tied in the standings at the conclusion of the Regular Season, the tie will be broken by the following criteria:
Head-to-head match score
Head-to-head map differential
Head-to-head round differential
Overall map differential
Overall round differential"

"If at any point one team wins a criteria, they will be considered the higher placed team. A new tiebreaker will be declared, with the remaining teams evaluated against the tiebreaker criteria again, starting with the first."

"If at any point multiple teams win a criteria, groups will be formed with the tied teams. Each group is evaluated against the tiebreaker criteria again, starting with the first."

There was a 3-way tie between OGLU, G2, and FKS for 4th-6th place at 1-4. All 3 teams went 1-1 against each other:

G2 2-0 FKS
FKS 2-1 OGLU
OGLU 2-1 G2

So why did G2 get 4th place? The first tiebreaker should be a 3-way H2H match score, which is 1-1 for all 3 teams. The second tiebreaker should be 3-way H2H map differential. And in that tiebreaker, G2 is 3-2, OGLU is 3-3, and FKS is 2-3. This gives G2 a +1 map differential, OGLU a 0 map differential, and FKS a -1 map differential. Shouldn't this mean that G2 should place 4th? After which the tiebreakers would start from the beginning between OGLU and FKS, and FKS would win that tiebreaker due to winning H2H vs. OGLU. Based on the rulebook, G2 should be 4th, FKS should be 5th, and OGLU should be 6th. What am I missing?

edit: OGLU actually should be ahead of FKS, but G2 should still be 4th

7 of the 8 playoff teams have been decided, but even for them, there's still a lot to play for, since 6 teams are still eligible to secure the 1st seed in their respective groups. Starting with those who have already been eliminated, here's the playoff scenarios for every team.

ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS:
TSM (Group A)
Sentinels (Group B)
Cloud9 (Group B)

TSM: I could be wrong about this, so feel free to correct me, but I'm almost certain that TSM have been eliminated from playoffs. They are currently sitting in a 3 way tie for 4th place in Group A at 1-3, and they play XSET in Week 5, while NRG and TGRD play each other. This means that even if TSM wins against XSET, they will sit at 2-3 and be in a 2-way tie with either NRG or TGRD. Based on Challengers 1, the tiebreaker for 2-way ties is H2H, and both TGRD and NRG have beaten TSM during this group stage, so no matter who wins that game, TSM will be out of the top 4 and not qualify for playoffs.

Sentinels: Sitting at 0-4, last place in Group B, Sentinels have been eliminated from playoffs, as 4 other teams have already scored 2 wins. SEN will play C9 in Week 5 to battle for 5th place and an extra 5 circuit points. If SEN win, they will be tied with C9 at 1-4 and hold the tiebreaker due to the H2H victory; otherwise, C9 will be 5th place with SEN staying at 6th.

Cloud9: After their 0-2 loss to LG today, Cloud9 have been eliminated from playoffs. Even with a win next week and a FaZe loss, FaZe holds the H2H tiebreaker over C9, meaning that the playoff teams in Group B are set. As mentioned previously, they will play a decider match against SEN in Week 5 to determine who will place 5th and who will place 6th.

Possible finishes: 5th, 6th

WIN AND YOU'RE IN (Group A):

The Guard and NRG Esports: Sitting in a 3-way tie for 4th place in Group A along TSM, these two teams actually can qualify for playoffs, and the path is very simple: win in Week 5. These 2 teams play each other in Week 5, with the loser being eliminated, and the winner qualifying for playoffs no matter what due to both teams having a H2H tiebreaker over TSM. Both of these teams can finish anywhere from 4th-6th place, however, since if TSM wins in Week 5 against XSET, the loser will be solely in last place at 1-4.

Possible finishes: 4th, 5th, 6th

PLAYOFFS SECURED (Group A):

100 Thieves, Ghost Gaming, and XSET: These teams are sitting in a 3-way tie for 1st place at 3-1, and have all locked in a top 3 seed into the playoffs. However, there is still a lot to play for, since only one of them can earn a 1st round bye. Here are the scenarios:

100T earn 1st seed with: 100T win over GHST
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (100T loss, XSET loss) or 3rd (100T loss, XSET win)
Explanation: 100T have the simplest path to the 1st seed out of the top 3 teams: just win in Week 5. As long as they win, they already own a tiebreaker over XSET due to their H2H victory, so they will earn the 1st seed no matter who wins between XSET and TSM.

XSET earn 1st seed with: XSET win over TSM, GHST win over 100T
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (100T win) or 3rd (XSET loss, GHST win)
Explanation: Obviously, with 100T and GHST playing each other in Week 5, XSET have to win to even have a chance at the 1st seed. However, the reason XSET needs GHST to win is because XSET have a H2H win over GHST but a H2H loss against 100T. XSET need to tie at 4-1 with GHST, in which case they will win the tiebreaker and earn the 1st seed.

GHST earn 1st seed with: GHST win over 100T, TSM win over XSET
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (GHST win, XSET win) or 3rd (GHST loss)
Explanation: Clearly GHST need to win in Week 5 to secure their placement over 100T in the standings, but to earn the 1st seed, they also need TSM to defeat XSET, allowing GHST to be in sole possession over 1st place, since they would lose the tiebreaker against XSET.

PLAYOFFS SECURED (Group B):

FaZe Clan: Unlike the other 3 teams that have qualified for playoffs in Group B, FaZe has no chance of earning the 1st seed, since either OPTC or LG will finish with 4 wins and FaZe is incapable of earning more than 3. However, they can finish anywhere from 2nd (with some wacky tiebreakers) to 4th (expected), depending on what happens in Week 5.
Possible scenarios: 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Evil Geniuses: After their upset win against OPTC, EG now have the simplest path to the 1st seed: win in Week 5. With a win over FaZe in Week 5, EG will lock up the 1st seed since they have tiebreaker wins over both LG and OPTC. However, with a loss against FaZe, they could actually fall down to the 4th seed if tiebreakers don't fall their way.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

OpTic Gaming: While OpTic have secured their spot in the playoffs, they now need some help from FaZe, in addition to a win over LG, to secure the 1st seed in Group B. However, they are at least guaranteed to start in the upper bracket, since their map differential has guaranteed that they will not fall to the 4th seed.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Luminosity Gaming: By eliminating Cloud9's playoff hopes today, LG have also secured their spot in the playoffs. However, like OPTC, they need help from FaZe in order to secure the 1st seed, and they could still even fall as low as the 4th seed due to tiebreakers.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Group B Playoff Scenarios:
There are both some very simple and very complex ways that the playoff seeding could fall after Week 5, so let's take a look into it. Starting with the simple scenario:

EG win over FaZe:
If EG wins over FaZe, we will avoid the more complex tiebreakers, since they will secure the 1st seed over the winner of OPTC/LG via H2H, and likewise, the loser of OPTC/LG will have a H2H tiebreaker over FaZe, making things very simple.
Seeding: EG 1st, OPTC/LG 2nd, OPTC/LG 3rd, FaZe 4th

Here's where things get more complicated.

FaZe win over EG, OPTC win over LG
In this case, OPTC will secure sole possession of the 1st seed, putting FaZe, EG, and LG into a 3 way tie for 2nd-4th place. The first tiebreaker for 3 way ties is map differential. Currently, FaZe sit at 4-4 and both EG and LG sit at 6-3. With a win in Week 5, FaZe will be either 6-4 or 6-5, and with losses in Week 5, EG/LG will be either 6-5 or 7-5.

• If FaZe wins 2-0, FaZe will take 2nd place.
• Then, if LG loses 1-2, they'll be 3rd over EG (7-5 > 6-5).
• If LG loses 2-0, however, it will go down to round differential between the two teams.
• The other scenario is that if FaZe wins 2-1, EG will sit at 7-5 while FaZe sits at 6-5, and there will either be a round differential tiebreaker between LG and EG (if LG lose 1-2) for 2nd-3rd place or between LG and FaZe (if LG lose 0-2) for 3rd-4th place.

FaZe win over EG, LG win over OPTC
In this case, similar to before, LG will secure sole possession of the 1st seed, putting FaZe, EG, and OPTC into a 3 way tie for 2nd-4th place, with OPTC having a map differential of either 7-5 or 8-5. Remember that in this scenario, FaZe can finish 6-4 or 6-5, and EG can finish either 6-5 or 7-5.

• If FaZe wins 2-0 and OPTC loses 1-2, OPTC's 8-5 will secure 2nd, while FaZe's 6-4 will finish 3rd and EG's 6-5 will finish 4th.
• If FaZe wins 2-0 and OPTC loses 0-2, FaZe's 6-4 will be 2nd, OPTC's 7-5 will be 3rd, and EG's 6-5 will be 4th.
• If FaZe wins 2-1 and OPTC loses 1-2, OPTC's 8-5 will be 2nd, EG's 7-5 will be 3rd, and FaZe's 6-5 will be 4th.
• If FaZe wins 2-1 and OPTC loses 0-2, OPTC and EG will go into a round differential tiebreaker for 2nd-3rd, while FaZe's 6-5 will be 4th.

Hopefully this wasn't too much of a bore or too complicated to read. If you think I made any mistakes, let me know!

both had easy Ro32 matchups
SoaR + DarkZero = NYFU + Soniqs (NYFU is probably the best out of the 4, Soniqs probably the worst since they lost to SoaR)
both easily beat Akrew to qualify but SEN lost to them 1st
basically the only difference between their bracket runs is SEN lost to Akrew while 100T had no problems with them at all

i would also say that it's more impressive for a new team that has been together for a month to qualify, vs. a team that has the same core it's had since First Strike, has only had one roster change in more than a year, and has had countless hours to scrim and practice together and build synergy

https://www.vlr.gg/pickem/2a16d13e

100T and V1 through uppers
Ghost and SEN through lowers

nt Knights and Akrew

100t 2-1 gen.g

shouldn't map 1 be over by now?

edit: oh

C9W 2-1 girl kissers

meL vs ROY

yeah my first suggestion was wrong, but OpTic still didn't take the lead at 5-2 though, it was 0-2, then 3-2, then 3-3, then 5-3

"The match transitioned to ZETA's pick of Fracture. After a 3-3 start, OpTic took the lead at 5-2. ZETA sprinkled in three more rounds, but Fracture ended up being a total shutdown from the North American side, who stole their opponents' pick 13-5."

should either fix "3-3 start" to 0-2 or 3-2 (0-2 makes more sense because of the following phrase) and change 5-2 to 5-3
or
fix 5-2 to 5-3, and change "three more rounds" to "two more rounds"

also "Those four clutches, won in a single map, account for more clutches than any other player has scored in an entire series at Masters Reykjavik so far." is slightly inaccurate if you're referring to full series of other games, since bnj got 5 clutches in their 1-2 group stage loss vs. ZETA, you could probably replace series with map though and be correct

only works like this in VCT BR, not in other regions, and I'm pretty sure they use the EMEA format which is just that LOUD gets to pick whether to be team A (1st ban, 1st pick) or team B (2nd ban, 2nd pick, picks side for map 5)

it seems like the EMEA tournament rules have generally been used for international LANs, and in a Bo5 that would just mean that LOUD gets to pick whether they want to be team A (ban first, pick first) or team B (ban second, pick second, gets to pick side on map 5).

you could consider it an advantage that OpTic had to play a full Bo5 today being at risk of elimination while LOUD got a day to rest and watch the OpTic match, helping them potentially gather intel, prepare counterstrats etc.

crazy prediction

so the top 4 teams from Challengers 1 (GRD, OpTic, C9, XSET) get invited to the group stage, while the other 8 teams get a bye to the round of 32 in the first open qualifier

100T will be allowed to keep their circuit points and Ro32 bye since Hiko will be on the roster as an official sub, allowing them to maintain 3 players (Asuna, bang, Hiko) from Challengers 1
FaZe will claim Rise's circuit points and Ro32 bye since they will have 3 players from Rise's old roster (Poised, supamen, and Shanks) with Shanks being a sub
the other 6 teams are: V1, LG, SEN, PK, NRG, EG

which, if any, of these 8 teams do you think will be replaced, and by who?

i think EG has by far the highest likelihood to be replaced, likely by either Ghost or TSM (not a fan but I think their roster has potential)
100T, PK, and FaZe could also potentially end up struggling, and I think at least one of them will end up failing to qualify

here are my predictions based on personal opinions, feel free to disagree:
first open quali: NRG and V1 qualify through uppers, 100T and SEN qualify through lowers
second open quali: LG and Ghost qualify through uppers, TSM and FaZe qualify through lowers

let's try to keep this thread respectful!

if you want to do it mathematically this would actually be wrong!

50% chance of LOUD winning upper finals * 50% chance winning grand finals = 25%
50% chance of LOUD losing upper finals, 50% chance winning lower finals, 50% chance winning grand finals = 12.5%

so p(L) = 37.5%

overall:
LOUD - 37.5%
OpTic - 37.5%
ZETA - 12.5% (win lower semis, win lower finals, win grand finals)
PRX - 12.5%

PRX 2-1 ZETA
13-10
9-13
17-15

damn y'all fixed that quick

a little inaccuracy:
"The first semifinals match of the day, a 2-0 in favor of DRX, began with OpTic's map pick: Ascent."

PAPER REX 2-0 G2 COPIUM
13-10
13-9

all good!

why did you put 2 optic storylines and no loud storyline?

not hating just curious

TL 2-0 ZETA
competitive first map but TL will wrap up the second map fast
13-11
13-4

OpTiC 2-1 KRU
10-13
14-12
13-8

FNC 2-0

if derke plays: 13-1 13-3
if derke doesn't play: 13-4 13-7