BRO LIKE CONTEMPLATES THE OVERHEAT AND THEN COMMITS TO IT WHAT A BEAST

HOLYYYYYY

how'd they do? I couldn't wake up in time to catch the game, but i saw they played it close against TEC. if you watched the games:

1) was it WOL looking weak, or TEC stepping up?
2) do you think WOL has good chances to beat BLG?

If SEN wins then it doesn't matter if 100T wins their game against KRU, because as you identified, SEN has the H2H advantage over 100T

The only way for 100T to get 1st seed is if 100T beats KRU, and 2G upsets SEN.

check here! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

been told to self-bump since i apparently dont know timezones that well - will keep the rest of my posts within more friendly EST time + lining up with emea matches

also, KC fans - you're going to want to cheer for BBL this upcoming game, because if they beat M8s, KC locks playoffs!
^ same for FUT fans

LEV - check EG's defense round win% (excluding the game against 2G). It's abysmal, and LEV is on the rise, so i'd go with LEV
C9 - C9 is actually the best team in the Americas right now; they're set to win it all and qualify to toronto finally making a LAN after many brutal years. i'll have to concede 100T lose this one
MIBR - this one's really a tossup imo, because N4RRATE's current form makes him look quite unbeatable. still though im gonna favour aspas verno and cortezia, the strats and aim have looked phenomenal

Hi VLR!

I've been jampacked with midterms (god I hate chemistry) but I've finally got a quick update for y'all on the permutations for the EMEA games:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=1203678410#gid=1203678410

Foldy sheet above^ - click on "EMEA" to see the breakdown of the different permutations from the remaining games, "EMEA Summarized" to see important matches for your favorite teams (it's a bit bare right now but that's done on purpose, there's still too many scenarios to narrow down exactly what each team needs).

I've also updated % to showcase how many scenarios each team has to end up at a certain place within the standings in their group.

Last note: important for feedback purposes. Had a nice chat with a fellow VLR user and it was brought up to my attention that we could potentially quantify the advantage of a team by factoring in betting odds... would this be of interest? because right now, M8s has a 0.63% chance finishing first in their group (based on solely permutations), but in actuality, that's pretty unlikely, given it would require some huge upsets (though luckily for you M8s fans, it does NOT rely on KOI winning, the least likely of all)

would this be of interest to anyone? I am happy to do the work to make an alternate spreadsheet with less statistically accurate but more conventionally accepted stats! lemme know in the replies

ty all

haha no econ + data science #1! but it does involve a lot of discrete math so yes you are right :D

valid af i was just crashing out because of my uni prof tbh you also did great work here

you dont often see stats people on vlr so it's good to see another guy obsessed w/ the numbers

also ig this might've been my first unofficial ragebait? lmfao

ty bossman - i didnt know either until today and it seems weird that the H2H rule changes for 4+ tiebreakers but wtv rito gam

i agree it's not a math forum but the point is about accuracy - they are presenting it as if it is truthful, when it isn't, which skews the narrative.

and yes i see OP's posts below: you're right in saying that no game is exactly 50/50, but you can't quantify the "advantage" of a certain team. like, in that case, if you do care about form and are trying to illustrate it, KRU looked absolutely horseshit against EG this week - how are they ABOVE 50% of making it given their recent form (literally a day ago)?

point is: these stats on where a team finishes are all based on % of remaining scenarios, not biased perception of form. you can then interpret it however you want: OK, I like KRU, so while they're at 50% right now, me personally, i like them, so I'm gonna give them 58%

you cant just tell everyone "it's 58% bc math" when it's your own opinion

---
edit: sorry this seems like ragebait, im also not upset at OP because i think any sort of statistical discussion is good, this is just me being precise with language since i got yelled at by my stats prof about conflating the two when it comes to % breakdowns. it's not chance and perceived form, it's literally how many scenarios are left where a team finishes in a Yth position. good discourse comes about when you talk about comparing the %s to your own opinion of the team, which i am all for

no, h2h rule does not apply to 4+ way tiebreakers. read here: https://www.vlr.gg/post/4773835/playoffs-implications-vct-foldy-sheet

sure - to which case it should be disclosed that it's not mathematically correct + somewhat vibes based since the whole point of this post is to assume the stats provided by OP are in fact correct + presenting it as fact, to then be discussed on.

it sounds crazy but ZETA can actually still have a chance at getting 1st seed! now granted, it would require ZETA > NS, TLN > T1, TS > RRQ, and then for ZETA to win 2-0 while everyone else loses 0-2, but there is still a scenario which yes makes pacific insanely competitive and close

same with the weird stats bias here too --> if KRU wins their game against 100T, they are GUARANTEED 1st seed. if they lose, they will not get 1st seed GUARANTEED.

there are 8 remaining scenarios, 4 of which have KRU winning. exactly half. 50%.

so why is KRU at a 58% chance of finishing 1st? hello?

how in the hell are you getting these percentages --> there are literally only two scenarios for the DRX/GEN placements in playoffs:

if GEN beats DRX, GEN gets #2 seed, DRX gets #3 seed
likewise, if DRX beats GEN, DRX gets #2 seed, GEN gets #3 seed

so literally half the scenarios have GEN at 2nd and DRX and 3rd, and vice versa, aka 50%/50%
so how the fuck is it 52%, 48%? does your math include you sprinkling in some fairy magic? if you're swaying the numbers based on your own perceived strength of teams then it's not statistical at all

confirmed via the 2025 VCT Rulebook (section 5.1.7 linked below):
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/dsfx7636/news/b2626c898b248fe08f7cf5425d5b54e3deb1db31.pdf

so no, just because RRQ has H2H advantage does not mean they'd automatically get 1 seed. in that scenario, it would again come down to (1) map diff then (2) round diff

yeah i thought about that but according to the tiebreaker rules on liquipedia, H2H isn't a consideration for 4+ way tiebreakers, only 2 and 3 way.

happy to make the change if i could get another clarifying voice though

it requires two BIG upsets and also they gotta make up some insane round diff, but yes, there is a world!

why did it post twice avg uni wifi

YES! I'm getting it done (well it is done I'm just lazy to format LMFAO)

also cuz there's lots of matches still, so typing up summaries will take a while - may as well wait until only the matches that actually matter

Should be outlined on the sheet "PAC Summarized", but essentially

if ZETA beat NS
TLN beat T1
TS beat RRQ

and ZETA has better map diff than RRQ, T1, and TLN

then they can in theory get 1st seed still.

And, though unlikely, let's assume RRQ and T1 get the same map diff as ZETA, then ZETA would need a better round differential compared to those 3 teams

so it's very very unlikely, but again, it's not chance - it's how many scenarios remain, and this is in theory a scenario where ZETA can get 1st seed

Oh totally forgot too - there's a tab called %, which tells you the percent of remaining scenarios where a team finishes in a certain position.

Ie: RRQ, in 56.25% of the remaining 8 scenarios, will finish as seed 1 in Group Omega.

Important distinction: it's not their chances of making it, rather just the # of scenarios left that will give them a certain ranking - chance implies each game is exactly 50/50, and while it feels like that while watching val, each game is not 50/50 and certain teams are in fact favored

• unfortunately, the math doesn't yet exist to calculate the statistical advantages of a certain team over another. maybe one day :')

Hi VLR!

Thanks so much for everyone's feedback yesterday :) I really appreciated the kindness and am happy to announce a couple changes to the foldy sheet.

If you don't know, the "foldy sheet" is something that originated from LCS/LEC (where I came from), where the statisticians behind the LCS/LEC would post, every year, the implications of certain matches in determining a team's playoffs chances.

Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

Changes made + credit to ppl who gave feedback:

From serot: I've now added sheets summarizing each remaining match's implications on the matches. You can see these for each team still in contention for 1st seed/playoffs qualification under the "Summarized" tab
(ie: if you're curious about how 100T can get 1st seed without reading the confusing matrix, just click on the "AMER Summarized" tab to see it)

From whoaskedbruh: they asked to add EMEA results and implications, I will update this before the games on Wednesday!

Let me know if y'all still have any feedback/questions on how to use the sheet :)

mangotan <3

lucky for u emea is pretty set with APK GX and KOI all being 0-3 most of the results are pretty straightforward.

but... i did say that for KRU > EG this week and look how that turned out LMFAO

used an algorithm which did most of the hard work but to format it i had to do it manually ofc

LMAO which is ironic because they fucked us over last year but yes i agree it's good to hear for us

still tough though since i do agree with something brenshow said the other day - i think C9/MIBR/G2 are the top 3 in the league rn, and the fact that one of them for sure will be our opponent in r1 is a bit terrifying

on the other hand, if v1c stops playing like the second coming of jesus, C9 might not be as big of a challenge as once thought...

i was planning on opening it before wednesday, but i can open them after the games today if thats ok?

ty femboyenjoyer

any feedback?

good suggestion! i will change it shortly jujst gotta wrap up studying for this exam lol

AGREED! hoping for a #100TWIN next week nonetheless - it'll be a good confidence booster into the playoffs

also good to know we're guaranteed at worst 3rd seed due to H2H advantage with EG

yes you are partially correct - there's no chance there will be a 3 way tie because 100T and KRU play against one another so one of the teams will have a 4-1 record the other will have a 3-2 record

but yes, if we assumed KRU beat EG, there were a couple more scenarios where 100T could finish as the top seed based on map diff

yes you are right - though don't conflate likelihood with possibilities, since it's % of scenarios, not how "likely" a game will go a certain way

but otherwise yes!! hopefully 2G upset SEN and 100T beat KRU next week, then we can get the BYE :)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

yes you are absolutely right - to see all the scenarios visualized, u can check out this sheet i made (yes i will make improvements because ive been told it's visually ugly):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

Unresolved 3-Way Ties (aka no h2h and dependent on map diff) are all highlighted in red. this is for AMER and PAC.

so on the sheet, the only two scenarios where 100T get 1st seed are dependent on:

A) 2G beating SEN
B) 100T beating KRU

in this case, 100T would be the only team on 4-1 (both KRU and SEN would be 3-2, so they would be 1st seed without any tiebreakers or weird H2H rules)

so yes you are right! EG/LOUD game doesnt matter so long as the other two matches go towards 2G and 100T

2-way tiebreakers are broken by H2H - so if that were to happen, KRU would be 1st seed over SEN as they beat them in the group stage.

fair enough! i can do that too :D

appreciate the feedback - yeah i was just using it to track for myself but i get needing to make it more userfriendly to read

the matches are all lined up and then each team's final placement in the group (1st - 6th) is on the right side. Beside the team's code is their final record

hi all!

i originally come from watching LoL esports and one thing I loved that they do is this thing called the "foldy sheet", where the stats people behind LEC/LCS create a spreadsheet dictating the effects of matches on playoff contention.

i saw there was a lot of confusion on the implications of future games, so i figured i'd share it here!

ps: please someone send it to sliggy's chat he was so confused earlier

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

feedback is welcome!

yes - and that's also why, as an avid 100T fan (coper), i knew that losing to them wouldn't be a huge deal given KRU's form.

now this whole discussion could be pointless if 100T just choke to 2G next week, which wouldn't be out of the picture for my team i mean they lost to fucking furia last year, but either way gls man

was gonna say i think this is the longest thread that's gone on for a while without someone rudely interrupting.

i speak on behalf of everyone when i say we're going to collectively ignore your useless contribution to this thread by keeping the chain going:

GOATEZIA 🐐

No it doesn't - if KRU beats EG next week, but 100T beats both 2G and KRU in the next two weeks, then both KRU and 100T would have a 4-1 record.

In this case, we would use the tie-breaker rule for a 2-way tie, which is Regular Season Head-to-Head. Because KRU would have lost to 100T in the regular season, 100T would win the tiebreaker, and finish first in the group.

EDIT: to provide additional clarity, if KRU loses to EG in Week 4 but beats 100T in Week 5, then they will be 1st seed going into playoffs. This is because, assuming SEN also goes 2-0 in the next two weeks, both KRU and SEN would have a record of 4-1. If we use the 2-way tiebreaker rules again, we would find the head-to-head between KRU and SEN, and since KRU beat SEN last week, they have the advantage.

nope. if these are the results of the next few matches:

2G > 100T
SEN > LOUD
EG > KRU
2G > SEN
100T > KRU
EG > LOUD

Then 5 teams are tied at 3-2, and then LOUD will be eliminated at 0-5. H2H no longer matters, so then it goes to Map Diff + Round Diff. There is still a world, albeit a really unlikely world, but a world nonetheless.

That's why official VCT Broadcast + Liquipedia both don't have KRU listed as qualified yet (weirdly, a similar scenario was also present for VCT CN Group Alpha until EDG beat TEC this past weekend)

in theory there's a couple scenarios where KRU can't qualify to playoffs, but they are statistical anomalies so YES VAMOS KRU !

I login today and all my binds are reset to default and my crosshairs are all gone. how to fix? need to get out of bronze

where are the doubters now? 2-1 as I said.

LET'S GO THIEVES.

but luk_xo, my dear, you are the fucking goat. bem jogado

ok i know SEN/EG is going on rn but that game is hella sleeper i mean eg jus isn't shooting back so take a read at my weekly mangotan take!

A bit about me: Hello everyone, my name is 100T mangotan - unofficial analyst for 100 Thieves and fan of the team since Asuna first joined during their First Strike win. For years, I've watched and analyzed this team, and this year, I’m going to be releasing weekly analysis on my boys in red.

Quick preface: I’m half brazilian half chinese so i’m actually super hyped for lukxo’s debut. He played hella good on Galorys at ascension last year, so hopefully he’s one of the new gen of brazilian talent that will stamp their legacy into the next couple of years of franchising (Sato, all of LEV acad, etc).

Still tho, Zander will enact his revenge and 100T will win. No more choking Map 5 in Ascension Finals, this is VCT Americas baby!

RECAP: Why did 100T win last week
EG looked Awful - like they forgot how to play. Cryo was just Beaming, racking up kills while EG’s defense was full of Holes. Teamplay was Crisp too - 100T’s synergy was on Point, Boostio making calls like a God while EG looked like a bunch of Randoms. Way better vibes than SEN’s Chaos too i mean they looked awful against KRU.

Why will 100T win this game?
Ok hear me out - LOUD’s got some Juice, and i think they’ll put up a fight, Especially with luk_xo in the mix. Mans got aim that Slaps, and his Ascension showing was Nuts, but he’s new to LOUD and he’s gonna Choke under the VCT pressure - it’s just how it Be. LOUD’s teamplay isn’t Tight enough to handle 100T’s aggression hitting at the Perfect moment. Boostio’s been Cooking strats, and 100T’s gonna Roll LOUD with executes that leave them Clueless. Asuna and Cryo boutta Feast - think 30-bombs while LOUD’s backline is Malding. LOUD might have that Brazilian Energy, but their setups are Shaky, and 100T’s gonna punish every Mistake. Past record? Doesn’t Matter - 100T’s form rn is Cracked, and LOUD’s getting Bodied.

What am I expecting from 100T?
I want 100T coming out Swinging like LOUD personally insulted their Moms. Asuna’s gonna go so Hard that LOUD fans will be Crying for a nerf - dude’s the King of NA and he’s here to Prove it. Cryo’s aim is gonna be so Clean LOUD’s duelists will be Alt-f4ing mid-game, and Boostio’s Calls are gonna make LOUD’s IGL look like a Bot. Expecting 100T to play Fast, Fearless, and Unhinged - full Sends, nasty Flicks, zero Chill. They’ve had time to Anti-strat LOUD’s predictable plays, and it’s gonna Show. This isn’t just a W, it’s a Statement to flex NA > Brazil this time. Gimme some Chaos that’ll have LOUD’s comms sounding like a total Clownshow - i’m Living for it.

Final Result: 100 Thieves 2-1 LOUD

Map 1 - Icebox: 13-9, 100T. Cryo holding B like a Chad, droppin 25 Kills while LOUD’s util just Flops. Asuna Lurking catches LOUD sleeping, and they Tilt into orbit.
Map 2 - Ascent: 13-7, LOUD. Luk_xo Pops off with some Disgusting aim, and LOUD steals one with raw Fragging - respect to my Brazilian Roots, but it’s not Enough.
Map 3 - Haven: 13-5, 100T. Boostio’s mid-round Calls shred LOUD’s Defense, and Cryo Clutches a 1v2 to seal it while LOUD fans spam Copium in chat.

See you all after the game. #100TWIN

ellar

again too many chefs in the kitchen lol - there's like 50 different ideas probably going off all at once, and I think sliggy described it really well as a "domino" effect: in the midround, to reclear/get info, they play aggressively and take fights since that's their strong suit. but as soon as one person dies, the rest of the team feels like they have to step up to "make the play" and then they also push into it. sometimes this works (see the round where they push sands on Fracture for instance), but most times it gives them a man disadvantage

so tldr: it's mostly the lack of calling, they need an IGL. you're right in identifying this team has star players who all excel, and they should do well, but they aren't on the same page / fundamentally play the game differently which causes most of their losses

idk if we were watching the same game tbh - alecks set strats looked clean, they just don't know how to midround and because the players r good mechanically they try to force a fight for info + reclear, but end up losing because it's too aggressive

think they'd just benefit from an IGL, ik alecks catches a lot of flack but this seems a bit of a stretch from u