Playoffs Implications - VCT foldy sheet

#1

mangotan

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Hi VLR!

Thanks so much for everyone's feedback yesterday :) I really appreciated the kindness and am happy to announce a couple changes to the foldy sheet.

If you don't know, the "foldy sheet" is something that originated from LCS/LEC (where I came from), where the statisticians behind the LCS/LEC would post, every year, the implications of certain matches in determining a team's playoffs chances.

Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

Changes made + credit to ppl who gave feedback:

From serot: I've now added sheets summarizing each remaining match's implications on the matches. You can see these for each team still in contention for 1st seed/playoffs qualification under the "Summarized" tab
(ie: if you're curious about how 100T can get 1st seed without reading the confusing matrix, just click on the "AMER Summarized" tab to see it)

From whoaskedbruh: they asked to add EMEA results and implications, I will update this before the games on Wednesday!

Let me know if y'all still have any feedback/questions on how to use the sheet :)

mangotan <3

#2

31Raven

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bump

#3

mangotan

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Oh totally forgot too - there's a tab called %, which tells you the percent of remaining scenarios where a team finishes in a certain position.

Ie: RRQ, in 56.25% of the remaining 8 scenarios, will finish as seed 1 in Group Omega.

Important distinction: it's not their chances of making it, rather just the # of scenarios left that will give them a certain ranking - chance implies each game is exactly 50/50, and while it feels like that while watching val, each game is not 50/50 and certain teams are in fact favored

unfortunately, the math doesn't yet exist to calculate the statistical advantages of a certain team over another. maybe one day :')

#4

Wingull

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how does ZETA have a 3.13% chance of taking 1st seed? what scenario has to happen to arrange that?

#5

Wingull

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oh wait I see I missed the summarization page

#8

mangotan

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Should be outlined on the sheet "PAC Summarized", but essentially

if ZETA beat NS
TLN beat T1
TS beat RRQ

and ZETA has better map diff than RRQ, T1, and TLN

then they can in theory get 1st seed still.

And, though unlikely, let's assume RRQ and T1 get the same map diff as ZETA, then ZETA would need a better round differential compared to those 3 teams

so it's very very unlikely, but again, it's not chance - it's how many scenarios remain, and this is in theory a scenario where ZETA can get 1st seed

#15

Hyxagon

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i believe when there’s a tie with 3 or more teams, whichever team has the best record against the other teams in the tie would decide which one is placed higher, then a further tie would take map record into account.

so if this scenario happens, zeta, talon, t1 and rrq would all be 3-2 overall, but rrq would have beaten the other 3 teams, so they are the top spot

#16

mangotan

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yeah i thought about that but according to the tiebreaker rules on liquipedia, H2H isn't a consideration for 4+ way tiebreakers, only 2 and 3 way.

happy to make the change if i could get another clarifying voice though

#17

mangotan

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confirmed via the 2025 VCT Rulebook (section 5.1.7 linked below):
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/dsfx7636/news/b2626c898b248fe08f7cf5425d5b54e3deb1db31.pdf

so no, just because RRQ has H2H advantage does not mean they'd automatically get 1 seed. in that scenario, it would again come down to (1) map diff then (2) round diff

#6

sergueiessenine

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GOAT

#7

appl

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u a goat for this

#9

TheLoque

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no emea? it's just 2^6 = 64 rows of possibilities for each group :)))

#10

mangotan

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YES! I'm getting it done (well it is done I'm just lazy to format LMFAO)

also cuz there's lots of matches still, so typing up summaries will take a while - may as well wait until only the matches that actually matter

#18

TheLoque

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ayyy EMEA's foldy sheet is out!!!

looks like the playoff team is set for them with GX, APK, M8, KOI eliminated

#11

mangotan

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why did it post twice avg uni wifi

#12

ggd12345

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crazy that NS are out if they lose, but if they win, they might even get first seed

#13

mangotan

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it requires two BIG upsets and also they gotta make up some insane round diff, but yes, there is a world!

#14

morgue

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very nice