Run through 1000000 simulations. The code for tiebreakers was written by Claude and doesn't count rounds (so it skips directly from h2h map diff to overall map diff). Nonetheless it should be pretty accurate.
LEV: 1st 45.6%, 2nd 35.7%, 3rd 17.1%, 4th 1.6%
NRG: 1st 40.4%, 2nd 34.8%, 3rd 17.9%, 4th 5.4%, 5th 1.4%
MIBR: 1st 12.5%, 2nd 20.8%, 3rd 44.8%, 4th 21.8%, 5th 0.05%
FUR: 3rd 0.2%, 4th 32.3%, 5th 43.2%, 6th 24.2%
EG: 1st 1.4%, 2nd 8.7%, 3rd 20.0%, 4th 35.7%, 5th 32.3%, 6th 1.8%
NV: 4th 3.1%, 5th 23.0%, 6th 73.9%
This is based on the following probability estimates:
EG - MIBR: 35% EG, 65% MIBR
NV - FUR: 30% NV, 70% FUR
LEV - NRG: 55% LEV, 45% NRG
EG - FUR: 45% EG, 55% FUR
NV - NRG: 25% NV, 75% NRG
LEV - MIBR: 60% LEV, 40% MIBR
EG - nRG: 35% EG, 65% NRG
Those are kind of arbitary and just placeholders since I didn't set up any elo calculations for better estimates yet. If you guys think the probabilities would be better off modified, I can modify them and run it again.
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