only math % for PACIFIC, EMEA AND AMER

#1

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BASIC MATH:
MIBR/FNC/G2/M8: 75% chances of qualifying to Santiago
PRX/TL/RRQ: 50% chances of qualifying to Santiago
100T/NRG: 25% chances of qualifying to Santiago

now basing on their map W% (this is a lot of text so i will only put UPPER FINAL TEAMS and LOWER ROUND 4)
G2: 56,33% chances of qualifying to Santiago as 2nd seed, 76,52% chances of qualifying to Santiago
PRX: 55,01% chances of qualifying to Santiago
M8: 53,53% chances of qualifying to Santiago as 2nd seed
RRQ: 44,99% chances of qualifying to Santiago
FNC: 46,47% chances of qualifying to Santiago as 2nd seed
MIBR: 43,67% chances of qualifying to Santiago as 2nd seed, 66,33% chances of qualifying to Santiago

100T: 46,39% chances of getting eliminated on Lower Round 5, 31,25% chances of qualifying to Santiago
TL:
NRG: 53,61% chances of gettting eliminated on Lower Round 5, 25,90% chances of qualifying to Santiago

ALLAT

#2

twigster001

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allat

#3

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true

#4

twigster001

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genuinely incredible stat scrubbing btw

#5

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i've done crazier things than this i think but thanks
i only put like 90 minutes
to make it complete i'll probably need a lot more time but the PRX DRX is just now so i can't

#6

elm

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so ur saying there's a chance for TL to win?

#7

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i mean obviously there's a chance for them to get to santiago
and to win against TH

i think going full map W until last second, TL Santiago will be like 9% or something like that

#8

elm

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Honestly I like those odds
i've bet with lower

#16

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i mean now there's more chances after that win, LETS GO TL

#17

elm

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LET'S GO LIQUID

#9

catNmouse

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how are these statistics determined?

#10

V0sotros

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for any n number of independent events, the probability of all events occurring can be calculated such that P(a_1...a_n) = P(a_1)xP(a_2)x...xP(a_n) where an event P(a_n) is equal to the individual probability of the nth event.

Simple math was done using the assumption that every match was a 50/50 game
More complex math was done by using the map win rates in order to be more precise

#11

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yes exactly, that's kinda it
the second one is more complex the first one is just normal probabillities

#12

bonkarfanboy1

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Bro thinks we care about the eighth decimal of his made up percentages 😂😂

#13

LouBag

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Ngl that made me laugh

#14

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yeah i just put it to keep record of the number for myself

#15

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BTW somehow this helped me realize the mistake in the percentages
cause i forgot to take into account the change of probabillites during the match