Americas simulated results

#1

Dravaco

I wrote a program that simulates the remaining matches of the group stage 10,000 times. Here is the average seed of each team after Americas week 4:

Here are the results if matches are random, for example:
2G have a 50% chance of beating Sentinels
FURIA have a 50% chance of beating MIBR

Group Alpha

Team │ W-L │ Map │  Round  │ Avg │  1st │  2nd │  3rd │  4th │  5th │  6th
KRÜ  │ 3-1 │ 6-4 │  98- 91 │ 2.0 │  50% │  12% │  21% │  16% │   0% │   0%
SEN  │ 3-1 │ 6-4 │ 113- 83 │ 2.0 │  25% │  53% │  14% │   8% │   0% │   0%
100T │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 105-103 │ 2.3 │  25% │  25% │  50% │   0% │   0% │   0%
EG   │ 2-2 │ 4-4 │  79- 82 │ 3.7 │   0% │   9% │  14% │  76% │   0% │   0%
2G   │ 1-3 │ 3-6 │  90-109 │ 5.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100% │   0%
LOUD │ 0-4 │ 3-8 │ 108-125 │ 6.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100%

Group Omega

Team │ W-L │ Map │  Round  │ Avg │  1st │  2nd │  3rd │  4th │  5th │  6th
G2   │ 4-0 │ 8-2 │ 127- 87 │ 1.7 │  52% │  30% │  18% │   0% │   0% │   0%
C9   │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 124- 90 │ 2.1 │  36% │  14% │  50% │   0% │   0% │   0%
MIBR │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 122-101 │ 2.2 │  12% │  56% │  32% │   0% │   0% │   0%
LEV  │ 1-3 │ 3-6 │  82- 97 │ 4.5 │   0% │   0% │   0% │  50% │  50% │   0%
NRG  │ 1-3 │ 3-7 │  81-103 │ 4.5 │   0% │   0% │   0% │  50% │  50% │   0%
FUR  │ 0-4 │ 1-8 │  59-117 │ 6.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100%

Here are the results if matches are simulated using estimate team strength based on round win percentage, for example:
2G have a 17% chance of beating Sentinels
FURIA have a 5% chance of beating MIBR

Group Alpha

Team │ W-L │ Map │  Round  │ Avg │  1st │  2nd │  3rd │  4th │  5th │  6th
SEN  │ 3-1 │ 6-4 │ 113- 83 │ 1.7 │  38% │  55% │   4% │   3% │   0% │   0%
KRÜ  │ 3-1 │ 6-4 │  98- 91 │ 2.1 │  54% │   3% │  19% │  24% │   0% │   0%
100T │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 105-103 │ 2.5 │   8% │  38% │  54% │   0% │   0% │   0%
EG   │ 2-2 │ 4-4 │  79- 82 │ 3.7 │   0% │   3% │  23% │  73% │   0% │   0%
2G   │ 1-3 │ 3-6 │  90-109 │ 5.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100% │   0%
LOUD │ 0-4 │ 3-8 │ 108-125 │ 6.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100%

Group Omega

Team │ W-L │ Map │  Round  │ Avg │  1st │  2nd │  3rd │  4th │  5th │  6th
MIBR │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 122-101 │ 1.7 │  33% │  60% │   6% │   0% │   0% │   0%
G2   │ 4-0 │ 8-2 │ 127- 87 │ 1.8 │  56% │   5% │  38% │   0% │   0% │   0%
C9   │ 3-1 │ 7-3 │ 124- 90 │ 2.4 │  10% │  34% │  55% │   0% │   0% │   0%
LEV  │ 1-3 │ 3-6 │  82- 97 │ 4.4 │   0% │   0% │   0% │  56% │  44% │   0%
NRG  │ 1-3 │ 3-7 │  81-103 │ 4.6 │   0% │   0% │   0% │  44% │  56% │   0%
FUR  │ 0-4 │ 1-8 │  59-117 │ 6.0 │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │   0% │ 100%

#2

zhongZHI

2

Frags

+

–

mucho impressive.

#8

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

thanks! I'd do one for china, but i think it would be a bit predictable.

#30

Rev1va1

0

Frags

+

–

could you do one for emea? unless it takes too much of your time

#3

zhongZHI

-1

Frags

+

–

bump. hello guys??? look???

#4

askrial

0

Frags

+

–

holy fuck how long did this take lmao. this is really impressive dude. is this just a bunch of macros or something?

#10

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

it look like a week over working on it in my free time, its a python program, so now that its done it doesnt take that long to do the simulations

#5

VxpxFX

-1

Frags

+

–

Nice but very unreadable

#9

xo_ko

7

Frags

+

–

get your eyes checked, it's perfectly readable

#11

zarpela

2

Frags

+

–

portrait mode

#12

VxpxFX

0

Frags

+

–

Dawg it’s a bunch of data crammed together. What do the percentages even mean💀🙏

#13

gluesniffer

4

Frags

+

–

are you on mobile? pc is pretty clear cause it's rows and columns lining up

#14

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

the percentages are the odds of each team being that seed (e.g. SEN has a 38% chance of being the 1st seed).

#16

cozylotus

-1

Frags

+

–

Turn your phone so it's landscape

#6

leiz

-1

Frags

+

–

nice work

#7

morgue

1

Frags

+

–

decent

#15

_Kevn_

3

Frags

+

–

Had to open up PC to read this, mobile version destroys the organization of this chart.

#26

31Raven

-1

Frags

+

–

turn your phone

#17

cozylotus

0

Frags

+

–

How does g2 only have a 5% chance of getting 2nd place but 30% chance of c9? If they lose to c9 they'll get 3rd?

#18

Chi-ari

0

Frags

+

–

make display landscape on phone it works
(this was supposed to be meant for the comment above this icant😂)

#21

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

The only way G2 get 2nd is if G2 lose and FURIA beats MIBR, and the odds of MIBR losing are pretty low.

Pretty much, if G2 win they get 1st. If they lose they have a small chance of getting 1st, a small chance of getting 2nd, but will probably get 3rd.

#28

cozylotus

0

Frags

+

–

How is that the only way? If mibr win and g2 lose to c9, wont the 3 be in a 3-way tie? The h2h would be tied too so it'd come down to map diff then rnd diff. I feel like i'm missing something significant for it to be probably 3rd if they lose

#29

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

You're right, if MIBR win and G2 lose to C9, all three will be tied and H2H won't resolve it. G2 has a +6 map differential, while MIBR and C9 both have +4.

If C9 2-0 G2, then the standings would be

C9  | 4-1 | +6 Map Diff
MIBR | 4-1 | +5 or +6 Map Diff
G2   | 4-1 | +4 Map Diff

and G2 would get 3rd.

However, if C9 2-1 G2 and MIBR 2-1 FURIA, then the standings would be

C9  | 4-1 | +6 Map Diff
MIBR | 4-1 | +5 Map Diff
G2   | 4-1 | +5 Map Diff

and then G2 would win H2H over MIBR and get 2nd.

So G2 gets 2nd if they lose and MIBR win, or if C9 2-1 G2 and MIBR 2-1 FURIA.

#31

cozylotus

0

Frags

+

–

Heres what i thought: if c9 wins but it goes 2-1 and mibr win but go 2-1 they would all be tied 9-4 in maps. And I thought the tie breaker never circled back to h2h so there was a good chance, even if mibr 2-0 it could come down purely to rnd. That was my confusion

#32

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

Yeah I forgot that it'd still be a 3-way tie even they both 2-1. If:

C9 2-1 G2
MIBR 2-1 FURIA

Then:

They're all tied at 4-1.
They're all even in H2H.
They're all 8-4 in maps.
Round differential. G2 currently has a lead at +40, but C9 is at +34 and will have just beaten G2, so C9 probably gets 1st, G2 might get 1st, and if C9 v G2 has a round diff near 0 and MIBR gets like +17 against FURIA, then MIBR could get 1st.

#19

1One1

0

Frags

+

–

Nice

#20

yuriito

0

Frags

+

–

👏👏👏👏👏👏

#22

Togex

0

Frags

+

–

hella impressive

#23

underdog_Supporter

0

Frags

+

–

How does Sen win the head to head. Didn't KRU beat them? Not saying you are wrong, I am just trying to understand.
Also, why are there only 4 matched played in result? I don't understand the data here

#25

Dravaco

0

Frags

+

–

KRU will get 1st if they win, but if they lose then they'll probably get 3rd or 4th. However, SEN is most likely to get 1st or 2nd, so SEN has a higher average finishing place than KRU.

Also, KRU has to play 100T, while SEN plays 2G, so SEN is more likely to finish 4-1 than KRU.

#24

foythvlr

0

Frags

+

–

2G have a 50% chance of beating Sentinels
FURIA have a 50% chance of beating MIBR

thats obvious they either win or dont

jokes aside good shit man nice work

#27

31Raven

0

Frags

+

–

bump, very impressive