22

NA can still send all 5 teams to americas playoffs

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#1
tttangent

EDIT: IT TURNS OUT ALL OF THIS MIGHT BE WRONG, LIQUIPEDIA DID NOT LIST THE TIEBREAK RULES FOR 4+ WAY TIES SO I ASSUMED THAT THE 3-WAY TIE RULES WOULD APPLY. ACCORDING TO THE RECENT POST ABOUT EMEA PLAYOFF SCENARIOS IT SEEMS THAT 4+ WAY TIES MIGHT BE JUST DECIDED BY OVERALL MAP/ROUND DIFFERENTIAL. LEAVING THESE POSTS UP JUST IN CASE.

DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN, IT'S JUST POSSIBLE

THIS NEEDS TO HAPPEN:

SEN win vs. KRU (done)
SEN win vs. FUR
LEV loss vs. C9
LEV loss vs. LOUD
100T loss vs. MIBR (yes 100T has to LOSE, I could not find a scenario that sends all NA teams to playoffs unless this happens)
then there are 2 scenarios that work:
scenario 1: NRG win vs. LOUD (done) AND EG win vs. NRG
scenario 2: EG loss vs. NRG AND SEN wins 2-0 vs. FUR

edit: since NRG defeated LOUD, either result of EG vs NRG now works, with an EG win being preferable since an EG loss requires SEN to 2-0 FUR

IF THIS HAPPENS, then playoffs will consist of LOUD + all 5 NA teams.

LEAVING THE EXPLANATION + MATH IN A COMMENT BELOW SO PEOPLE DON'T SAY "ain't readin allat" EVEN THOUGH IT'LL HAPPEN ANYWAYS, IGNORE IT IF YOU DON'T CARE!

editing this as results happen

#2
tttangent
13
Frags
+

EDIT: IT TURNS OUT ALL OF THIS MIGHT BE WRONG, LIQUIPEDIA DID NOT LIST THE TIEBREAK RULES FOR 4+ WAY TIES SO I ASSUMED THAT THE 3-WAY TIE RULES WOULD APPLY. ACCORDING TO THE RECENT POST ABOUT EMEA PLAYOFF SCENARIOS IT SEEMS THAT 4+ WAY TIES MIGHT BE JUST DECIDED BY OVERALL MAP/ROUND DIFFERENTIAL. LEAVING THESE POSTS UP JUST IN CASE.

LONG EXPLANATION + MATH INCOMING, FEEL FREE TO IGNORE!

the final standings for scenario 1 would be:
LOUD 8-1
C9 8-1 or 7-2
EG 5-4
NRG 5-4
SEN 4-5 (2-1 H2H)
100T 4-5 (2-1 H2H)
LEV 4-5 (1-2 H2H)
FUR 4-5 (1-2 H2H)
MIBR 3-6
KRU 0-9 or 1-8

this would be a 4-way tie for the 5th and 6th seeds, and the first tiebreaker would be H2H record which would send 100T and SEN through since they have 2-1 H2H records against LEV and FUR's 1-2 H2H records. the playoff seeding would be LOUD #1, C9 #2, EG #3, NRG #4, SEN #5, and 100T #6.

the reason that 100T has to lose to MIBR to fall into the tiebreaker because otherwise the 3-way tie between SEN, LEV, and FUR would go to map differential since they would all be 1-1 against each other, and LEV is guaranteed to have a higher map differential than SEN.

NRG also must win against LOUD in this scenario. EDIT: this has already happened! if NRG had lost vs. LOUD and ended up falling into the tiebreaker, then NRG would have expanded the tie to a 5-way tie, and that part of the standings would have looked like this:
NRG 4-5 (3-1 H2H)
100T/SEN/LEV 4-5 (2-2 H2H)
FUR 4-5 (1-3 H2H)

i believe that this would have put NRG into playoffs and eliminated FUR, leaving the last 2 spots to be determined by map differential between 100T, SEN, and LEV. however, LEV would be guaranteed to have a higher map differential than either of the other 2 teams, leaving either 100T or SEN to be eliminated, so that is why scenario 1 required NRG to beat LOUD to avoid falling into the tiebreaker, even though NRG themselves would have been fine either way.

the final standings for scenario 2 would be similar, but the tie would be between:
100T 4-5 (3-1 H2H)
EG 4-5 (2-2 H2H)
SEN 4-5 (2-2 H2H)
FUR 4-5 (2-2 H2H)
LEV 4-5 (1-3 H2H)

i believe that this would put 100T into playoffs and eliminate LEV, leaving the last 2 spots to be determined by map differential between SEN, EG, and FUR.

in this scenario, SEN, EG and FUR will all have a map differential of -2 or -1. this means that SEN has to beat FUR 2-0, since if they win 2-1 then FUR will have a -1 and SEN will have a -2, but if they win 2-0 then FUR will have a -2 while SEN has a -1.

edit: SEN won 2-0 vs. KRU eliminating the round differential scenario, so I've removed that from the explanation. if SEN beats FUR, one of the two teams will have a higher map differential than the other.

EG is also guaranteed to win either the map differential or round differential tiebreaker against FUR in this scenario (even if they lose 26-0 to NRG they will still have a higher round differential than FUR, since they would be at -6, and FUR's -8 can only go down if they have to lose 0-2 to SEN)

the playoff seeding for this scenario would be LOUD #1, C9 #2, NRG #3, 100T #4, and EG/SEN #5 and #6 (order TBD)

#3
hanafuuji
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allat

#13
tttangent
1
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thanks for commenting it on the explanation and not the post, W

#4
pitchfork
-16
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allat

#8
tttangent
16
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BRO CAN'T READ 200 WORDS!

#28
valorant_player
0
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BRO CAN'T USE CHAT GPT TO SUMMARIZE A PARAGRAPH 💀

#29
tttangent
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YEAH LET ME GET CHATGPT TO SUMMARIZE MATH!

#5
CryoZanderDerrekEnjoyer
1
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Lil bro put in the grind

#6
tttangent
2
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EDIT: IT TURNS OUT ALL OF THIS MIGHT BE WRONG, LIQUIPEDIA DID NOT LIST THE TIEBREAK RULES FOR 4+ WAY TIES SO I ASSUMED THAT THE 3-WAY TIE RULES WOULD APPLY. ACCORDING TO THE RECENT POST ABOUT EMEA PLAYOFF SCENARIOS IT SEEMS THAT 4+ WAY TIES MIGHT BE JUST DECIDED BY OVERALL MAP/ROUND DIFFERENTIAL. LEAVING THESE POSTS UP JUST IN CASE.

while it's unlikely, the scenario isn't really that crazy if you think about it.

C9 and LOUD beating LEV and SEN beating KRU are probably the expected results as of now.
SEN having to beat FUR is a challenge but FUR looked very sloppy against 100T earlier so it's definitely possible.
NRG only needs to beat LOUD if they lose to EG. the expected result is likely NRG beating EG which would require SEN to beat FUR 2-0, which again is a tough challenge but not unrealistic.

the craziest thing that would need to happen is actually MIBR beating 100T which seems very unlikely at this point considering how badly MIBR just got stomped by EG.

#10
nuge
-4
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YOU KNOW WHAT IS CRAZY BUDDY... THE AMOUNT OF TIME YOU ARE SPENDING ON THIS... GO AND CHOP SOME TREES OR HUNT OR SOMETHING, REAL MEN DON'T WASTE THEIR TIME ON HYPOTHETICAL NA VALORANT SCENARIOS... PLEASE BROTHER GET YOUR MANHOOD BACK

#12
tttangent
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i'm a bored math major

#16
nuge
2
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SORRY THATS ON ME THEN.. NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A NUMBERS GUY MYSELF, I PREFER HEAVY LABOUR AND VIOLENCE BUT WHATEVER FLOATS YOUR BOAT

#17
tttangent
7
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ALL GOOD HAVE A GREAT DAY

#23
zeta1617
0
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real men dont use vlr, they simply memorise match schedules of all the leagues and create multiple threads in their own mind.

#7
ayayaay
-2
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allat

#9
tttangent
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BRO CAN'T READ 200 WORDS!

#14
ayayaay
-2
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i appreciate the effort though

#15
tttangent
0
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i specifically put the explanation in a separate comment so people would at least read what needs to happen but i can't escape the allat

#11
TheSacredDonut
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W post

#18
BairyHalls
0
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hard work is what i see

#19
tttangent
0
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EDIT: IT TURNS OUT ALL OF THIS IS WRONG, LIQUIPEDIA DID NOT LIST THE TIEBREAK RULES FOR 4+ WAY TIES SO I ASSUMED THAT THE 3-WAY TIE RULES WOULD APPLY. I'LL UPDATE THE REST OF THIS POST SHORTLY.

after the results from today (SEN 2-0 KRU, NRG 2-0 LOUD), this scenario is now more likely.

the results that still need to happen are:
LEV loss vs. C9
LEV loss vs. LOUD
100T loss vs. MIBR
SEN win vs. FUR
either EG win vs. NRG OR SEN 2-0 FUR

this set of results will send all 5 NA teams to the playoffs, eliminating FUR and LEV via tiebreaks.

#22
hanafuuji
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100T losing to mibr Clueless

#27
tttangent
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oh yeah it is highly unlikely to happen for sure, but that's the only way NA can send all 5 teams to playoffs so

#20
Yistyy
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Respect bro

#21
dejikke
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no way 100t loses to mibr but keep the hope NA

#24
NneonZz
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time to root for MIBR again lol

#25
Cresp
0
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Eg win

#26
TakoSaki
0
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read allat

#30
BrotherMan
0
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Newton fears you

#32
mocaxoxo
0
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come on MIBR we are counting on you :(

#33
MikeySan0
0
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what is h2h (head to head?)

#34
tttangent
0
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yes, basically whenever I'm talking about H2H records for teams that are tied I'm referring to their record against all the other teams they're tied with

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