This is saddening for me as well not a fan of nrg or G2 tbh but I simulated all the teams earlier and did it again with as much information as I could add in.
Also expanded to top 12 cause of how placements are given in champions. Give me thoughts.
Liquid in 12th is crazy for how they're bombing out 1-2 in the group stage
12th works exactly for that reason lol. Going 1-2 and getting eliminated in groups is 9-12 anyway
I wrote up some code to help. Then just dumped records of pretty much every match since stage 1. Is enough data to at least make an educated guess
Well definitely not common about 1 in 1000 odds won a bit under 50 simulations but tbh they are too much of an unknown to predict in an international. Could be closer to 1 in 250 if China is in form but could also just be like 1 in 5000 if they aren't in form. Edg and xlg at least are known to put up a fight internationally but no real record of the teams that are in their first international. (Tyloo, jdg and the other 3 potentials in fireflux, onside and varrel)
respectfully how is T1 at 9. ur simulation is prob valuing them too high just for qualifying to an intl this year when they did absolutely nth
Not arguing too much in their favor either but something to understand in this. If you think of the actual meaning of each of the placements 9th really isn't anything out of the ordinary for T1, it simply means they get 1 win in groups and then lose 2 games. Simply put 9-12 are currently the teams that will lose out 1-2 in most of my simulations.
Respectfully though I do genuinely believe that 9th a reasonable rank for them at this stage, likely to qualify and a lot more international experience then a standard team i wouldn't be surprised if they did reach playoffs when competing against some of the other teams.
how is vit below them though. vit placed 4th at london and have alr qualified for champs and they also have intl experience
Simply put its current form. Needing to rely on other teams to qualify and struggling to get a single win in playoffs makes things difficult we just don'tknow how good/bad they are actually playing.
Vitality in London from memory is their only strong international performance so far so there's no trust in them to replicate the result, since t1 has at least been to the majority of the events and been getting this 9th place it sort of just has a bit more trust. But given how the format works its legit a case with absolutely no difference
vitality made playoffs in upperbracket though. meanwhile T1 struggled in groups, went to playins and only got through the lowerbracket
Yeah but two caveats with that now. First is that they made it through playoffs, meaning after a two week break they lost their form.
Second is the fact they lost to enterprise who afterwards lost to fut and Liquid. To be honest that liquid win against enterprise really narrowed the gap. Both due to qualification and current form.
T1 right now has most recently lost to nongshim and if they were to go lose to onside right now who have extremely low odds of having even make it to champions it wouldn't look good for either t1 or nongshim. And would overall probably even hit t1 out of the top 12, mainly due to the complications in qualification due to it.
Effectively with this part I'm just trying to explain that this list obviously struggles because emea is ahead in schedule. We can't know the exact situation but right now you won't see Vit going down easily. You could see massive variation in T1 in comparison so just sit back and enjoy the show my friend
I wish massive liquid fan, but not qualified and historically not performing beyond groups even after domestic dominance. Won't be able to get any higher than 9th at least till champs.
Edg is still working with a strong upset potential their 3rd in London really brings them up either way.
G2 sadly has shown consistency for too long to drop down lower. I really tried to put a bit of extra pressure on their reset form drop but they're a stubborn team. Their long term consistency is just too good to fight.
Currently 21st/26 remaining teams. Just too low a possibility to make it to champs at the moment
Lowkey NS feels high to me, I feel like T1 and NS should be closer together
NS may be a bit high but they are coming out to be the strongest Korean team internationally and close to the top domestically (just behind genG and debatably with varrel in current form). T1 suffers from having made it to internationals so often to lose in groups but NS doesn't have that issue with their flawless route through Santiago as their only international reference.
Sadly don't have it available at this stage. Will be a while before I can give a genuinely good answer. Still developing more and more variables to make it more and more realistic. So that's the current focus
extremely possible with bracket luck tbh assuming lev nrg 100t g2 are there
this has never happened in the history of franchising on any region
bracket luck is nearly impossible with the seeding standards
Just the impact of their performance this year. Santiago, g2 and NRG only lost of to prx and NS. obviously lev did well in London and just overall consistency that nrg and g2 have shown pushes them through most of the time. (Trust me I tried alternatives). 100t is just taking their EWC performance and pushed into the top 8 especially due to one of the previous internationals shanghai but they came out of nowhere to become competitive for a stage and perform significantly well coming 4th.
i guess it is by the lack of better teams year-round lol. i do think this severely underestimates momentum of a lot of teams rn but running by the numbers is what it is. but like i said this haven't really happened in history of franchising and by seeding logic at least one of these will get grouped unless some very specific scenario happens where somehow lev and NRG are the ones sent as 3rd/4th seed
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