Kickoff I feel like is too early to get a grasp on a situation like this, at that point we're looking at data that has completely changed, teams evolve and some will have chemistry that early and some will still be working on it. its overall just difficult to value that data as something accurate for the team.

As an example, teams like global esports, obviously they aren't the strongest even at this point but they clearly weren't anywhwere close to international level at that point and without any major roster moves (outside maybe Frost), they have made it this far. They simply needed time to build chemistry which they don't get until they start the season.

Theres plenty of examples like this and of course theres teams with roster moves going on as well which are harder for me to track then just match results and scoreboards.

But feel free to let me know if you think up anything. there are variables I didn't mention but I'm not at home so to get everything out and list it right now is a bit long.

Looking at a number of variables, from strength of schedule, how close the game was, I've pretty much fed data from about the start of stage 1 and a little bit of santiago, till now and given a value to everything, some variables like international performances I've given extra impact given the importance of it for a strong team in internationals. theres a bunch of stuff, but they start from the current situation in each international league and rank every team and value their odds and strength overall. but its for fun so there will be different things I value that other people might not value as much.

So I've posted twice before a rating for all the teams, and given the upsets and even some more confirmed qualifications, we're looking at some major changes from the past. Of course this is just for fun for me, but I wanted to share it at least.

First percentage is qualification chances and the second is the number out 100k simulations the team won champs.

1 🇺🇸 NRG 100% 16.80%
2 🇰🇷 Nongshim 100% 15.45%
3 🇸🇬 PRX 100% 12.41%
4 🇺🇸 100T 95.3% 9.54%
5 🇨🇳 EDG 100% 8.54%
6 🇺🇸 G2 100% 7.82%
7 🇦🇷 LEV 96.3% 7.18%
8 🇫🇷 KC 100% 4.85%

9. 🇰🇷 T1 94.0% 3.70%
   10 🇪🇺 Liquid 100% 3.35%
   11 🇹🇷 FUT 100% 2.87%
   12 🇫🇷 Vitality 100% 2.11%

People fail to understand sometimes but keep in mind that 9-12 should effectively mean they go 1-2 in groups and get eliminated, so don't say I'm that high on them or any other team around the 7-8 range that just means they got 2 wins throughout groups. the other teams sure, flame me as you wish.

Currently 21st/26 remaining teams. Just too low a possibility to make it to champs at the moment

Sadly don't have it available at this stage. Will be a while before I can give a genuinely good answer. Still developing more and more variables to make it more and more realistic. So that's the current focus

Just the impact of their performance this year. Santiago, g2 and NRG only lost of to prx and NS. obviously lev did well in London and just overall consistency that nrg and g2 have shown pushes them through most of the time. (Trust me I tried alternatives). 100t is just taking their EWC performance and pushed into the top 8 especially due to one of the previous internationals shanghai but they came out of nowhere to become competitive for a stage and perform significantly well coming 4th.

Yeah but two caveats with that now. First is that they made it through playoffs, meaning after a two week break they lost their form.

Second is the fact they lost to enterprise who afterwards lost to fut and Liquid. To be honest that liquid win against enterprise really narrowed the gap. Both due to qualification and current form.

T1 right now has most recently lost to nongshim and if they were to go lose to onside right now who have extremely low odds of having even make it to champions it wouldn't look good for either t1 or nongshim. And would overall probably even hit t1 out of the top 12, mainly due to the complications in qualification due to it.

Effectively with this part I'm just trying to explain that this list obviously struggles because emea is ahead in schedule. We can't know the exact situation but right now you won't see Vit going down easily. You could see massive variation in T1 in comparison so just sit back and enjoy the show my friend

Simply put its current form. Needing to rely on other teams to qualify and struggling to get a single win in playoffs makes things difficult we just don'tknow how good/bad they are actually playing.

Vitality in London from memory is their only strong international performance so far so there's no trust in them to replicate the result, since t1 has at least been to the majority of the events and been getting this 9th place it sort of just has a bit more trust. But given how the format works its legit a case with absolutely no difference

NS may be a bit high but they are coming out to be the strongest Korean team internationally and close to the top domestically (just behind genG and debatably with varrel in current form). T1 suffers from having made it to internationals so often to lose in groups but NS doesn't have that issue with their flawless route through Santiago as their only international reference.

I wish massive liquid fan, but not qualified and historically not performing beyond groups even after domestic dominance. Won't be able to get any higher than 9th at least till champs.

Edg is still working with a strong upset potential their 3rd in London really brings them up either way.

G2 sadly has shown consistency for too long to drop down lower. I really tried to put a bit of extra pressure on their reset form drop but they're a stubborn team. Their long term consistency is just too good to fight.

Not arguing too much in their favor either but something to understand in this. If you think of the actual meaning of each of the placements 9th really isn't anything out of the ordinary for T1, it simply means they get 1 win in groups and then lose 2 games. Simply put 9-12 are currently the teams that will lose out 1-2 in most of my simulations.

Respectfully though I do genuinely believe that 9th a reasonable rank for them at this stage, likely to qualify and a lot more international experience then a standard team i wouldn't be surprised if they did reach playoffs when competing against some of the other teams.

Well definitely not common about 1 in 1000 odds won a bit under 50 simulations but tbh they are too much of an unknown to predict in an international. Could be closer to 1 in 250 if China is in form but could also just be like 1 in 5000 if they aren't in form. Edg and xlg at least are known to put up a fight internationally but no real record of the teams that are in their first international. (Tyloo, jdg and the other 3 potentials in fireflux, onside and varrel)

12th works exactly for that reason lol. Going 1-2 and getting eliminated in groups is 9-12 anyway

I wrote up some code to help. Then just dumped records of pretty much every match since stage 1. Is enough data to at least make an educated guess

This is saddening for me as well not a fan of nrg or G2 tbh but I simulated all the teams earlier and did it again with as much information as I could add in.

Also expanded to top 12 cause of how placements are given in champions. Give me thoughts.

1. PRX
2. LEV
3. NRG
4. NS
5. G2
6. EDG
7. FUT
8. 100T
9. T1
10. VIT
11. XLG
12. Liquid

You right, my bad so we got two players left instead

Do we officially only have 3 players up for the record of having attended every champions event for 5 years.

It's Mako (VS->DRX) then buzz and Stax (VS->DRX->T1). Is this fr if so do we just agree that these are the most consistent players are these guys long term...

Lmk if there's anyone I'm missing. And yes I do understand DRX's low odds of making it but they are definitely possible after the playins performance.

Pretty much liquid needs 3rd or a top 2 finish. Alternatively can take 4th and if BBL or Fut don't take third the make it

BBL can work with 4th or above so win their next game and are in otherwise the automatically are eliminated.

KC needs top 2

Fut already made it

Tier 2 teams just need to make finals

Vitality has two options if Fut make finals they need liquid to not take 3rd OR BBL to not take 4th. IF Fut lose and take 3rd they specifically only need BBL to NOT take 4th

TH needs one line Fut needs to reach finals and TL/BBL can't take 3rd OR 4th

Sadly had like a 0.4% chance of even qualifying on my side. Otherwise I'm down to get on the train.

Hey, won't get arguments from me but can only calculate so many variables. Imma be out here hatewatching g2 later. If we didn't consider the dip right now they probably would be 3rd or something as well.

And tbh I only hold real hope for edg and jdg atm and thats solely cause they're an unknown quantity outside China.

Overall historical international performance probably, might not be great performance domestically but due to china existing i had to have it put some weight on international results. Also they make it to champs over 99% of the time due to points afterall

So I am someone experienced in programming and I just simulated champions from qualifications from each region to the finals in Shanghai. There's obviously a few biased but based on maps, vetoes, overall form imo and some amount of superstition ;)

Look like these are top ten contenders to take a champs trophy

1. PRX
2. LEV
3. NRG
4. 100T (tbh most surprising appearance on the list)
5. G2
6. NS
7. EDG
8. FUT
9. BBL
   10.GEN

Whichever team wins goes to champs let's go Emea's first qualifying team

If Fut win against BBL today they make it confirmed.

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If we following the tiebreaker rules from last year, stage 2 would take priority, so it would end up being NS and T1 as well as the teams with the 3rd and 4th most champion points. (Happened in pacific last year with DRX and Talon)