What will happen after Rostermania is done
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NRG 2026
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Depend of the definition of fluke, they where the best team yesturday, but i'm pretty sure if you remade all the tournament 100 times they win 5 at most. (Most winner is probably around 40% max).
I just think star just align on them :
- Them not being taken seriously because no achievement during the year (beside beating SEN) and team probably spend less time antistrating them before the start of the event.
- Odin meta being under-radar for everyone and Brawk saw it before everyone at the right moment
- The mapool change was perfectly fitting for their playstyle (One different map and they might be out way mush early)
- A really easy playoff-bracket that help them to build a strong confidence (They could have loose one round more vs MIBR and they probably would have loose next round)
Change one thing the probably not win. (But still GG to them, they truly deserved it)
I don't think EDG was a "fluke", they did achieve things before they didnt came out of nowhere, they build this, bricks by bricks. Maybe if you redo the same tournament 1000 times they are not the team that would have won it the most of the time, but... They would still probably be at the top
I mean but i feel thats part of the game the team that takes the advantage of all these different thing so imo there is no fluke win. Fluke is cope imo like they might be the best rn cuz of these certain circumstances but sure a month from now they game changes and theyre no longer the best just different teams are better then others in each meta. Everything happens for a reason so i dont think there are such things as fluke wins.
Every map they win against EDG, DRX and MIBR are with +2 rounds, while being stomped on every map they loose (Only counter exemple are the 2 EMEA teams), they are so many way they could have loose the momentum and confidence that that make them win. The meta and timing is also some kind of luck, but even if you take series by series, the coin just end a lot in their favor. lets at least be honest and recognize an astral alignment there.
From my Bayesian point of view, redo the tournament 1000 time, they win 5% maybe 10% of times (that still an impressive number), they get grouped 40% of case, I don't think they are better than any other team in the upper part of the playoffs, and it's more FNC fear of winning mixed with the easiest part of the playoffs bracket that helped a lot there. I don't they beat G2 (G2 beat them), and same for PRX and DRX in even 40% of cases.
But I'm open to be wrong, and it will be pretty easy to prove NRG wasnt a fluke :
- Make atop 3 in any masters event in 2026 and they proved it wasnt a fluke (I would be absolutely delu to say they are a fluke if they can replicate good result)
- If they dont manage to qualify in any international event they proved it was a fluke (It will prove the "astral alignment" hypothesis is true, if you disagree with that part, please tell me ^^)
- Anything in between and the debate is still open
Are we at least agree to consider it was an "alignment of planets" if they dont qual to any international event next year ? Do you want me to put the bar lower ?
Because they come out of newhere and had the biggest astral alignement we ever see.
They need to prove it next year it was not a fluke, by doing good result, if they do, they prove to avnyone it wasn't a fluke (And I'll say myself it wasnt a fluke if they do top 3 during any inter event), but if they dont manage to qualify to any inter event, and go back to being a middle of the pack amer team, then we will all need to accept it was an astral alignment that was amazingly for them, and any other people say otherwise will be delusional. (Only time will tell)
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