BBG beat SEN in Masters 2 open qualifier week 1, and T1 beat BBG, so T1 is the best team in the world.
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weird take (definitely not bait)
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Didn't meant too long but skip the dahed part if bored...
It's not as straightforward as we would think. There is a pattern from SEN vs BBG game that can be traced back and possibly explained, but it should be taken with a grain of salt.
In short, SEN lost to BBG on Haven due to predictability (excellent HW by BBG) and insufficient diff in SEN's individual mechanics(below is the break down). I'm very sure I can explain losing Ascent in a similar way, but I haven't looked into it yet. Therefore, we can somewhat say that if there's an inadequate stagnation in pace or in implementation of old strats, then it will lead to upsets, even among teams like SEN, because unfourtunately individual mechanics diff is already very little and won't help winning maps any longer (mayby some rounds only), let alone series. Neither SEN losing to BBG nor T1 winnig over BBG make T1 a top 1 as BBG have never been a top 1 in the first place. BBG only pulled off a well calculated and well-planned upset, for which they deserve full credit. However, in order to become a top 1, BBG needed to win others regularly over a long period of time, to accrue ranked points (which, in my opinion, also serve as a consistency indicator) which they didn't.
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A short break-down of SEN's Haven map from BBG and on for interested:
So, if we limit SEN's map pool to Haven (vs BBG), we can see that SEN was most likely using their old strats with Phoenix/Sova/Jett/Cypher and Omen. Also since it was not yet a crucial stage of quals, and SEN viewed it as a simple game because possibly in their eyes BBG did not appear to be a threat, they somewhat underestimated BBG's preparation to counter their comp(+strat thinking) which resulted in losing Haven.
By skipping the smaller teams directly to SEN vs. RISE on Haven which they won with the same comp of Phoenix/Sova/Jett/Cypher and Omen. However the game was close until 9-9 to 13-9. Presumably, RISE were prepared but couldn't finnish off as a new and yet inexperienced team maybe?
Following game vs Noble on Haven was a comf win 13-6(same comp as above) ---> vs ANDBOX on Haven which they LOST 15-13(again same comp as above) ---> vs T1 on Haven they LOST 13-9 (8-4 to T1 at the first half) again with the same comp ---> vs IMT on Haven they fianlly WON 14-12 BUT with a new comp of Phoenix/Sova/Jett/Cypher and Astra, leading us to believe that new strats had been introduced(no brainer as new agent).
Now, they haven't lost a single Haven map since then(except in their last match vs XSET) even at Reikavek, playing the same new comp Phoenix/Sova/Jett/Cypher and Astra. Only when they were back in NA after LAN, they had reverted back to their old comp of Phoenix/Sova/Jett/Cypher and Omen when they played EG and SQ, possibly with new strats but an old comp? It looks like, we may say that BBG won because SEN's comp+strats at the time were quite READABLE on top of BBG's already excellent form and homework. Hence, if pro teams, even those of SEN's calibre, do not cycle or develop new strats in a timely manner, they will be left at the whim of individual mechanics of their players. And if the diff in indiv mech is not greater, then it won't bring the expected results for teams, let alone that Valorant as a game is essentially a succession of likely events that don't always turn out in our favour(whiffing etc).
Edited: Inserted in Bold Italic - last paragraph.
Wow you really took your time to write and analyse all of this?
Also they will change Sick to Skye since they have seen the potential in the skye buff and also at the phoenix "nerf" ( he is a good agent but skyes flashes are better so
skye > phoenix.) Theses all leads me to believe they gonna change strats since you cant really stop the defuse without the mollies. They will only have shock darts and the astra suck if they will play her. So its almost like they can't just rush a site and try to deny a 5v5 retake.
Edit: typo
No, It didn't take much time as I already knew they were playing Astra and how Astra is superiour to other smokers from Zombs tweets etc. It was just a matter of checking their match history, although it might confuse if unprepared. Just wanted to let it hang on here for those who find my point interesting. Though, there is so much more to discuss on the topic that I'm affraid that the format of this forum is no suitable, at least in one piece.
Yeah, you're right, if we allow ourselves to use a term "predictability", we can see why Sick is playing Skye ... her flashes are more versatile. Also, the heal and the dog scout ... she basically OP. Haven is SEN's best map with 79% winrate in 72 matches so imagine if TenZ would play Kay0 instead of Jett like DZ did when they faced TSM:
That would be very interesting to watch how all those abilities will be used from SEN's point of view. DZ's retake of A site on Haven from the above link looked scary flawless. SEN capable to come up with some the of sickest plays together with their fragging ability, so maybe we will see them play Kay0 one day.
Actually, I think in such a game like Valorant new metas help with predictability, in general. There aren't endless ways to create strats or local plays with certain agents. Eventually, teams learn how to counteract momentums or pace, so addition of new agents and switching agent metas plays favour to such eSport title. Lots have been complaining about the big variety of agents in this game but even from my tiny example we can see that switching to Astra, helped SEN finding a new momentum wave on Haven map which they kept riding untill after the LAN games - lots of Havens actually.
I am bias, but I have a lot of faith in T1 currently. Though it could be misplaced. I am not confident at all in my pickems, I have T1 going far currently but I might change things up before the Main Event starts. And I don’t know what to expect from V1 now that we finally after months get to see the actual roster play together. Also unsure where to put Luminosity, they looked strong against C9. My pickems might as well be random currently.
True these brackets look really hard to predict. Any team could be hard to beat on their day. Like you said T1 are performing really good as Dawn and Brax have settled into their roles. If they perform well against V1 or beat them then they sure are a force to be reckoned with. V1 is finally playing with their original squad after months and it would be interesting to see if they could produce a similar run as they did in stage 2. LG, KCP, RISE, are all tough predictions too.
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