They’d have to skip group stages by getting first seed to have a decent chance. EMEA has a prep deficit because they’re behind schedule by two weeks and the other regions will have acclimated to the new patch by then with fresher ideas.
Also, Individual form from the group stages of a Split aren’t a good indicator for performance in a high pressure, fast paced international (7 weeks vs 2 weeks). TH have never closed out a trophy either and there’s likely a mental block to work through.