| Flag: | United States |
| Registered: | April 22, 2025 |
| Last post: | August 13, 2025 at 4:21 PM |
| Posts: | 450 |
If we're talking perfect bracket, I don't think it should be 8 choose 4, it should be each swiss stage match right (implying you get all 4 correct obviously)
Then there's 10 games, so 1/2^10, giving a 1/2^24 chance, or 1 in 16,777,216
That being said, you may get all the swiss stage matches right because you do the predictions after matches are set, but you get the qualifiers wrong - so then I guess 1 in 1,174,405,120
now THAT is an obscure one LOL. but yes, he's good
I don't think watching Pro play is that good. They're playing pros, their util is more for pro play with combos with teammates. Now I'm not saying you can't combo with teammates, but the fact is most people won't if you aren't pro, and you aren't playing pros either.
So I'd say just know your lineups? I know fade/sova lineups on pearl
Chess.com:
2328 blitz (peak 2349)
2310 bullet (peak 2339)
2110 rapid (peak 2110)
1874 FIDE (peak 1874)
1944 USCF (peak 1944)
I don't play otb anymore
I'm gonna throw in my daily rating for the trolls lol
2032 daily (peak 2032) (yes I sweat daily chess)
Liches I'm 2500 blitz, bullet
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ik, he also played raze on split way back in ascension gf (wow that was a long time ago).
I would love to see G2 pull out a double duelist comp, and split is honestly the best place to do it, since there's typically no sentinels and it's fairly common + jawg plays yoru there.
You can put him on any role, so going into Toronto, none of us are worried or less confident since Tejo is gone.
Trent on duelist??? That would be fire since I'm completely tired of him playing tejo spam.
biggest th copium i've ever seen. They weren't using tejo, which means it's their real comps for toronto - no hiding (since tejo is underground now). Kaajak absoltuely rolled over TH - the rest of his team didn't even do that good (- in k/d) but kaajak was +40 and u really just can't beat that. Absolutely hard-diffed TH. They are not hiding anything.
And you can't even argue that it's a victory because of tejo abuse because crashies was going negative/dying early on the tejo.
i'm with you, 1. Riens, and then I'm cooked (if riens is even there, which i think yes, but you could debate).
2 must be trent. No other good teams in emea have a good sova player (TL doesn't, FNC doesn't), no teams in pacific (MAYBE kushy, but that's really reaching, and also just Jemkin is the goat in pacific), china is a hot mess but still none (really rarga/whzy are carrying the region)
agree with senfns (fns should join sen too lol) - trent is a top 3 sova itw. He was #1, statwise, on sova at kickoff, in americas, if not in the world (I think he was worldwide #1 sova too - you'd have to check, but he was definitely #1 statwise on sova at kickoff in americas).
Calling sunset a bad map for g2 is crazy considering it hasn't been in the pool for a LONG time. Agents have been balanced (there have been a LOT of changes to many agents), new ones released (ex. vyse), and the map itself has CHANGED, if you don't remember they changed b site a lot last october after vct champions 2024 and before kickoff 2025 (aka, not played on) - they added that hole that you can plant in, which wasn't htere before, and got rid of the box in b main. In other words, big changes!
Fracture was not a good map for them, but they don't really have a perma-ban, so fi they cook something up on the new sunset with new agents, then I wouldn't be surprised if they ban something else, like ascent, if they get counter-stratted, or maybe icebox/pearl (for the ptsd), etc.
s0m's cove incident, gotta agree with that
sScary's 1v5 maybe on haven ascension gf to close the map?
i think people don't realize how big of a difference it can make. Often times, teams may not be able to get rifles+full armor+full util in the 3rd round, especially if they invested a bit into the 2nd round/spent a lot of util. 800 credits, 2 rounds in a row, can make a big difference. 100 credits more, for 3 rounds (including the bonus), is 300 creds, which is often the difference between full armor and light armor, which could mean the difference between an outlaw body shot one shot or not.
u right, aint no one holding on to their ult unless they have a setplay (such as rolling thunder+tejo ult) which don't happen in ranked lol (but it's definitely much worse in pro play)
yeah skye dog is dead (and also skye is dead). Still, sova drone is a better source of your money now (maybe not skye dog since it barely sees anything and is basically useless)
def not, he's a decent sova player and also tejo is BAD now
Okay y'all clearly aren't initiator or tejo mains.
400 credits for a drone? Skye dog and Sova drone are now FAR better than that waste of credits. 100 creds makes a big difference, considering that you pretty much have to use it every round (unless you're on an eco).
The stun is actually "buffed" (200 creds), except it's by far the least used part of Tejo's kit, and it's obviously worse than a breach stun (even post nerf), and it's pretty hard to hit.
The ult is 9 points now. That seems like not a big change, but it means a lot less ults and likely a psychological push to hold onto your ult for longer, and more ult orb farming, making it more risky.
The missiles are also basically impossible to work with now. You can't missile out random corners or chokes now that you only have 2 missiles the whole round. So no more start of round missling, which actually helped way more than most people think (a lot of people who don't play tejo think you can only use it for post plant). Kicking people out of off angles and clearing corners/chokes is incredibly useful, saves a lot of time and less risk.
Some people think it will be better for post plant, because you can use it twice disconnected. While that may be true, you also gotta be much closer (10 m, which can make a big difference between hiding behind a corner and in the open), and this puts a lot more risk and makes post plant much harder. In addition, they cost money (150 creds), which many people do not want to spend.
In other words, he's dead. If you main tejo mostly like me, you'll know what I mean.
Since XLG is supposed to pick their opponent, I think they could potentially get lucky with their pick (not sure how the picking order works) and win a game, but if they pick last for example and end up with like PRX (who is basically the opposite of XLG's playstyle), they could get destroyed.
I don't see Wolves going far at all (probably not winning a match), but I think BLG can easily pull off a couple wins.
Edit: I just saw BLG get absolutely smashed and blown to pieces by DRX. Maybe they won't do good LOL but XLG still has a chance.
Disagree that G2 are "reliant" on tejo. It just fits their post-plant playstyle greatly, but it's not like no other agents have mollies. As someone who plays way too many stupid agents, yes it takes time for you to practice your previously memorized lineups/setups (ex switching to sova dart from fade eye or kay/o knife, or switching kay/o molly from sova shock dart), but given the amount of time they have, I think they can get their lineups back in time, and then it's pretty much the same.
sunset has always been a good map for g2, and I don't think tejo nerfs will affect them that much because their teamplay is THAT good.
In terms of map pool, I think G2 was buffed the most - their sunset was better than sen's last year, and they were pretty bad at fracture (well, they technically weren't bad at anything - no terrible losses, great map pool - but typically banned fracture).
Now, tejo nerfs will obviously affect them, and honestly I don't think Trent can really play that many non-recon initiators - I've seen him play fade, tejo, and sova, and that's basically it (a VERY tiny bit of skye). I'd be curious to see what he whips out now that tejo is basically nerfed beneath ground, since sova and fade aren't really that great on many maps (I say this as a guy who knows fade and kay/o lineups).
I'm not saying he's bad mechnically, but i don't know what he's gonna play now. RAZE???
So I think g2 is going to get slightly cooked. Expect PRX to be buffed.
Smoke: Omen
Senti: Vyse
Initiator: Kay/o OR Sova
Duelist: (hear me out) Phoenix OR raze
Flex: Gekko, Cypher??? (double senti), or Viper (probably cope from a viper main who loves to run viper on sunset)
i would not put kaajak (though that sage performance was different and i'm a biased sage player)
ABSOLUTELY would put rarga tho
team falcons 🤣 even though they only have a womens team they are funded by saudi government 🤣🤣🤣
you'd be surprised by the hate i get for saying trent is good with his rocket spams LOL
Agent Pool:
I flex to literally anything LOL besides duelist, more specifically
Initiator: Tejo (#2), Sova, Kay/o, Fade
Sentinel: Vyse, Cypher, Chamber
Controller: Astra (#1), Viper (#3), Omen
I know lineups :) on Sova, Kay/o, Fade, Viper
I just change the agent map by map and based on what role my team needs, but typically it'll be relevant on that map (e.x. Viper/Fade/Vyse on lotus, Astra/Chamber/Sova on Abyss, etc.)
Or i get bored and just instalock astra on any map.
"if" stop dreaming sen fans LOL
sen ain't making finals, and probably not g2 either with the tejo nerfs.
agree, EXCEPT for harbor, because that agent SUCKS on pretty much every map besides for Icebox. For that to succeed, it needs almost telepathic connection to your teammates in teamplay - best teamplay i can think of is G2, and frankly they can't pull it off either.
Harbor just needs a straight up reword. I mean, he just sucks. Phoenix should be better, higher pick rate I expect.
Though I don't think it's bad - with good team play, I think initiators are one of the best roles. But you MUST execute together and KNOW YOUR LINEUPS, otherwise you're cooked.
(Ik i'm gonna get downvoted heavily)
Trent is the best initiator player in the world rn (edited from Tejo because apparently people agree with that (where's my haters now))
because his team got cooked and he never stood a chance LOL
Jieni7 is... not it.
agreed, at Bangkok and definitely at kickoff tejo's pick rate wasn't as high, tejo meta wasn't "discovered" yet.
Post-bangkok? Tejo's pickrate is through the roof. Bangkok wasn't a fluke, just a COMPLETELY different meta.
Though G2 have looked impressive throughout - I do expect them to fumble a bit at Toronto without Tejo, but they're really good in individual talent and definitely more so on team play, so you never know.
ive watched nearly all games on emea and pacific, okay i'll correct my above post:
between top teams (aka playoffs) they were all close in emea
in pacific: there were way too many blowouts, not enough competitive series. Paper Rex vs RRQ was not close on three maps, that's never fun. Even today's game wasn't that close.
"most competitive region"
y'all need to stop smoking something pacific is NOT the most competitive region. T1 winning was absolutely crazy (and now they SUCK, those last two maps against PRX were a train wreck, especially in calls)
In my opinion EMEA is the most competitive. Lots of even teams, rarely blowouts. Yesterday's fnc vs tl was a BANGER (go watch it if you haven't yet)
says the TH fan.
I mean this year. Riens hasn't looked amazing, trent is on a different level, especially to any initiator in americas.
last year? yeah riens clears trent 366 days of the year.
True, I can agree with Jemkin, though we'll see at toronto.
For me, so far THIS YEAR (i'm not talking last year), trent has been FAR better than Riens, riens has not had that "standout" performance(s). But he was far better last year than Trent. We'll see what happens when trent has to get off of tejo (because as a tejo main myself, his nerfs basically kill him) at toronto, but if we're talking performance wise so far THIS YEAR, trent is better than riens.
who y'all thinking?
I think currently leading are:
Zekken, Trent, Rarga (i'm hesitant on him since he is in a farmer region and no international experience - we'll see in toronto), Nats (my goat)
To be honest, no one in Pacific has really impressed me, and frankly not really in China either. Not enough consistency (not enough consistency in really any region besides for America because literally no bangkok teams have qualified for toronto besides sen/g2 - only liquid can even do it now)
also in bbl vs kc to open up vct emea, but those comps were just a chaotic mess.
it was:
KC running KJ - Tejo - Omen - Viper - Kay/o
and BBL pulling out the weirdest thing i've ever seen, CLOVE - CHAMBER - Sova - Viper - Tejo
agree with this. They're probably coming up with strats right now lol.
They have the whole group stage also to decide which comps would be good post-tejo (since tejo is probably never coming back - nerfed to the ground).
Trent is also an amazing recon initiator, he can play skye, fade, or sova. I'd assume he's a bit rusty on his sova lineups (I get rusty on mine after too many tejo games, but I'm not trent so), but he has more than a month to brush up on lineups (though JonahP seems to have his kay/o knife and flash lineups already back).
Also would love to see them pull out double duelist, considering trent used to play duelist on some maps (split, for example) back on the guard (dang that was a long time ago).
highly doubt it, tejo is going basically underground with the nerfs. Remember the skye nerfs? it's even worse
rechargable missiles -> no. Number of missiles per usage? 1
Now it even costs money for the second missile! two missiles now costs 150 credits, doesn't recharge. I cannot overstate that nerf
Stealth drone even get more expensive, and the ult also got more expensive. Tejo is basically nerfed even harder than skye. Or maybe even chamber.
I think g2 will pull out their old comps - maybe keep vyse, but move trent to sova/fade, so jonahp can flex to either double intiator (skye, kay/o, breach, or maybe even fade when trent plays sova) or senti.
Trent is a pretty heavy tejo spammer, but he has looked amazing on sova in the past (even earlier this year on abyss), I would assume he can play sova, and he also pulled out fade a lot last year (even if this offseason). Honestly, he looks good on most recon initiators, and I think he played skye before (though JonahP would probably play it now), and i think he could play Gekko (not that gekko or skye is relevant).
Also, I would LOVE to see him pull out duelist again, he hasn't played it since ascension 2 years ago against M80 (I think, besides for offseason events), but it would always be fun to watch double duelists (him and jaw).
That being said, I think they'll get weaker, since tejo is just so overpowered today and really no other initiator gives that big of a buff, and G2 are pretty much the masters of tejo.
first off, sen lost against G2 on Split, not just any team (g2 lost to eg on lotus, not to sen)
Also SEN wiped the floor with mibr becasue aspas had a HORRIBLE game, let's be honest. Yesterday he was back to his normal form, you can't compare the 2 results.
Haven has not looked amazing for either side. The reason G2 banned haven is because in terms of map pool comparison, it's probably the best map for sentinels against g2 - but that's because g2 is decent/amazing on every map.
okay that's to scare other teams. They're not hiding their fracture strat, they've looked horrible (and i mean horrible) in kickoff/bangkok. You can't change that much while focusing on other maps too. They try to scare other teams out of picking fracture, but it's not gonna work if they are the only ones with bans - they're gonna ban it.
disagree, SEN's map pool is not as good as G2s.
G2 doesn't have a "weak" map, aka a perma-ban. They've banned whatever they felt like, and I think we saw them on all 7 maps in the cycle, and none of them looked particularly weak. Haven was their worst defeat by far (against C9), and then they smashed 100T and took it close against MIBR, so it's not weak either.
SEN hasn't looked particularly strong on any map, and they do have a perma-ban, fracture. Their match against MIBR isn't a good demonstration, as Aspas was on a bad day, then popped off against G2.
So SEN lose Split, Fracture, probably, assume they ban it.
That leaves Lotus, which is an easy win for G2, despite the ridiculous copium that sen fans are putting here (which i cannot believe - G2 have looked nearly perfect on it, and they only lost to EG, with a crazy clove comp and yay popping off - not happening with SEN, as they don't have yay).
Haven hasn't looked amazing from SEN either (if you watch the vods, not the scorelines) - not good for G2 either, I'll give it a 50/50.
Icebox is a 50/50, SEN took it 13-11 which is a close map last time they played.
Ascent is a 50/50, another close map, though I think G2 got better on it (they played against the SEN comp by MIBR yesterday, destroyed it).
The other map is Pearl, G2 always manage to make it to a 2-round difference there, so I don't think SEN will win (literally G2 needs to stop my heart attacks please) there either, but i'll say 50/50.
Clearly, G2 has the better map pool - 3 wins, 4 50/50s is way better than sen.
highly doubt they would ban ascent over fracture. They demolished g2 on ascent defense last time, and fracture is their perma ban, while g2 looked decent against one of the best teams in the region at fracture (since most teams perma-ban it lol (mibr, g2, sen)), lev.
In addition, g2 is pretty much undefeated on lotus. SEN would ban it.
dude he's saying nobody else comes close not "nobody" else comes close (which makes 0 grammatical sense)
SEN ban Lotus, SEN ban Split (it was TERRIBLE against G2)
SEN pick Icebox, win 13-9, comps are: SEN: KJ - Viper - Tejo - Gekko - Omen G2: KJ - Viper - Tejo - Gekko - Harbor
G2 pick Fracture, win 13-11, comps are: SEN: Neon - Breach - Tejo - Brim - Vyse G2: Tejo - Brim - Breach - Vyse - Raze (their last comp was NOT it against leviatan)
SEN pick Pearl, G2 win 16-14, comps are: SEN: Astra - Yoru - Tejo - Vyse - Fade G2: Astra - Yoru - Tejo - Vyse - Fade
G2 pick Haven, SEN win 13-10, comps are: SEN: Breach - Sova - Cypher - Omen - Neon G2: Tejo - Breach - Astra - Yoru - Vyse
Ascent remains, SEN pick defense, G2 win 13-10, comps are: SEN: Omen - Kay/o - Tejo - Vyse - Jett G2: Tejo - Kay/o - Vyse - Omen - Waylay (i could see them switching this back out for jett)
G2 win 3-2.
MVP: Trent on his one-trick tejo, drops 90 before getting cooked at Toronto as Tejo was nerfed to the ground.
I'm not cooking I"m just ragebaiting.
mr. tejo onetrick himself? nah
3-2 G2, trent drops +25 only for jonahp to go -35.
They're clearly not banning for anti-tactics.
As you mentioned, tejo-yoru will not be in the pool for masters, since tejo was nerfed to the ground.
In addition, MIBR run tejo in their pearl comp, so it is highly likely that their comp and tactics will change before masters toronto. Therefore, they should take the free map win and leak no tactics, especially considering the fact that some of these maps, such as Ascent, they are revealing tactics that will likely stay the same (considering they don't play tejo or yoru on ascent).
this is a map ban advantage for g2, no?
I was expcting a win for mibr on pearl, but they banned it for some reason.
split should be a g2 win, since they demolished sen and sen demolilshed mibr.
Haven will be close, but seeing as cloud9 smoked g2 on it, I would say mibr win.
Lotus is a pretty safe g2 win, they only lost to EG, but MIBR hasn't looked good and eg has looked amazing on lotus.
Ascent was NOT pretty for MIBR, they lost to Furia on it, and they also lost to G2 earlier - i don't see g2 pulling out their waylay comp again after it got hard-read by sen, so I think MIBR's prep is probably useless on ascent, g2 win it.
That's already 3 wins for g2.
Fracture, I would say g2 win, since they looked strong against sen on it last split and obviously it's mibr's perma ban. That being said, I have no clue what mibr has up their sleeve, so I'll give them the dub.
prediction: 3-1 G2, but if it goes to a map 5 (aka g2 can't close out all 3 maps in the first 3 maps), then 3-2 MIBR.
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