NA Challengers Group B Comeback?

https://imgur.com/Cy79jrG

Do OREsports/Madlions stand a chance vs TSM/Guard or are they basically out?

no

Apparently, VCL NA has round diff tie breaker priority over head to head so the chance of either OR/MAD winning their next two matches with a big enough round diff to qualify with 4th place is miniscule but it exists

I'd say anything is possible but I don't see that happening