All jokes, memes, flairs, and regional biases aside, Group D looks significantly stronger than the other three groups.
Bookmaker odds are not infallible, nor are they the same thing as an official power ranking. However, they are one of the most accurate ways to estimate a team’s current strength. Sportsbooks and betting markets incorporate recent form, matchup history, and other information into their prices. If those prices are consistently inaccurate, informed bettors can exploit them.
Nongshim RedForce are currently the strongest team in Pacific.
NS entered their most recent match against Paper Rex as only slight underdogs, with the implied probabilities sitting at roughly 48% to 52%. After the way Nongshim dominated that series, they would reasonably be expected to enter a rematch as the favorites.
They were also close to 2:1 favorites against Global Esports. Based on both recent performance and market expectations, there is a strong case that NS are currently ahead of the other Pacific teams at this event, including T1.
Karmine Corp are currently the strongest team in EMEA.
KC went undefeated in the playoffs after an already strong group-stage performance. Team Liquid were narrow favorites before their recent meeting—approximately 53% to KC’s 47%—but KC won the match and strengthened their claim to the top spot in the region.
If KC and Liquid played again right now, KC would likely be favored. The same should apply against EMEA representatives such as Vitality and FUT. That does not guarantee KC would beat every one of them, but current form and market pricing place KC at the top of the region.
NRG are currently the strongest team in the Americas.
Yes, NRG lost to 100 Thieves and LOUD. Whether they were saving strats is impossible to know, and it is difficult to quantify how much mada’s injury affected their most recent performance.
What we do know is that NRG entered almost every Stage 2 matchup as the clear favorite. The only exception was their match against LEV, where they were slight underdogs. Whether you like it or not, they are currently the strongest AMER team according to statistics, probability, and data.
Group D is not merely a group with one tournament favorite and three weaker teams. It contains three teams with legitimate claims to being the strongest current representatives of Pacific, EMEA, and the Americas. Whichever team comes out of Group D alive will have a decent chance at winning it all, and I would argue NRG, NS, and KC would have a harder time in their group stage matches compared to the playoffs matches.
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