Bet on odd part 3

#1

Anguibok

Following of that post :
https://www.vlr.gg/350419/betting-contest-based-on-odd-no-money-involved/#30
https://www.vlr.gg/351829/bet-on-odd-part-2/ (I can’t find round 2 topic, I think it might have been deleted, if you are a vlr mod, I would love to hear what hapenned!)
tldr ; testing a bot based on ELO, I want to see if you can beat him.
Rule is easy : Every new player receive 1000 point at the start, you can bet 100 point maximum on each game. (Obviously no money involved, it’s just for fun)

Round 3 odding bets Odd in [], chace of win in () :

[1,66] FPX – TH [2,52] (FPX 60%)
[1,96] FUT – LEV [2,05] (FUT 51 %)
I think my bot is probably wrong on both to be fair, but I kinda agree with the fact both team are kinda close.

Ranking :

1st Dolphin 918
2nd Novinho_pirocudo 979
Is bot in positive ? Bot is currently + 103

Result of lasts rounds
R1

[1.7] G2 - T1 [2.42] : (G2 59%, G2)
[1.61] FPX - FUT [2.63] : (FPX 62%)
[1.61] GEN - LEV [2.63] : (GEN 62%)
[1.48] TH - DRG [3.07] : (TH 67%)
R2
[1,99] G2 - TH [2,01] : (G2 50,2%)
[1,92] FPX - GEN [2,08] (FPX 52%)
[1,79] LEV - T1 [2,26] : (LEV 56%)
[1,53] FUT - DRG [2,88] : (FUT 65%)

#2

novinho_pirocudo

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i really like TH and FPX, shame that one of them aint making it, FPX is playing better tho
i bet 100 on lev and fpx
This lev x fut game is gonna be a awful game to watch

#27

Anguibok

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-200 --> 779
part 4 https://www.vlr.gg/353760/bet-on-odd-part-4/#1

#3

Al-Mawsil

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i bet 100 on lev and fpx

#24

Anguibok

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-200 --> 800

#25

Al-Mawsil

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minor set back i will win next time

#4

K4ziuHa

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bet 100 on FPX
bet 75 on LEV

#5

Anguibok

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It's 100 max my bro !

#8

K4ziuHa

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missclick

#21

K4ziuHa

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less Gamba= less Fun :(

#26

Anguibok

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-175 --> 825

part 4 here https://www.vlr.gg/353760/bet-on-odd-part-4/#1

#6

wykes

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100 lev
100 th

#28

Anguibok

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-100 +252--> 1052
part 4 https://www.vlr.gg/353760/bet-on-odd-part-4/#1

#7

novinho_pirocudo

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is lev playing that bad? i thought it was gonna be like a 60% chance or something for them against fut
damn

#9

Psion

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no they aren't, the system used isn't great. Lev should 2-0 if both teams play how they did today

#11

novinho_pirocudo

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thats the problem my guy, lev is one heck of a inconsistent team, they have one good game after 10 bad ones, yeah sometimes they win even playing poorly cuz of aspas or cuz of bad opponents but they should be winning it all!
just like 100th, they're made to win, they just couldnt fit in yet, but once the clockwork starts moving like it should they'll be unstopabble, i dont think its happening in this year tho
and to be honest i want my aspas OUT OF THERE ASAP
My take is 2x1 lev

#12

Anguibok

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It's not they are playing bad, it's more they got a lot of loose this year, they are only in 7-6 this year, if they want to have a better ELO, they need to prove themself. To me their level is a little bit higher that the stat the bot give them (Because the bot is based on past result and it seems they are kinda improving since the start), but they still need to prove her wrong, and thats not by loosing against GEN and G2 that they will do it. To me they are favorite for tomorrow, but the game may not be one sided.

#14

novinho_pirocudo

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i think loosing to geng is okay, they're so good
but the lower finals of the americas were just a clown fiesta, both teams competing to see who would make more mistakes, one map worst then the other, its okay for an underdog like g2 to do that, but lev? hell no

#15

Psion

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yes but they should at least be favored vs FUT, both Lev and FUT are 6-4 this stage but Lev's wins and loses are against better teams on average

#16

Anguibok

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Hard to say if FUT loose are against worst team, FNC got a higher ELO than any AM team for obvious reason, so FUT and LEV have almost the same ELO and the game is 50-50 for the bot so thats sounds fair to me.
I think the main diff between the two team is that Fut went to world la year and Lev didn't, FUT proved they can be top 8 world, Lev never did it yet, they have just to win this one (If they done they will be 54% instead of 49%)

#17

Psion

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but FNC shouldn't be the highest ranked team, 100T should

#19

Anguibok

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How so ? FNC loose only 2 BO3 in 2023, they loose only one in kickoff, and they struggle to qualif to PO like 100T did
FNC is consistent, 100T isn't really yet.
The bot think about long term, if a team have 2 good week like 100T did, it's not enough to pass a team that have been consistently at the top since 2023 (And even more)

#20

Psion

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2023 does not matter a whole lot. the map pool is different, the meta is different, FNC's players are playing differently, 100T has a different structure than 2023.
100T did not struggle to make playoffs, they were very comfortably the 2nd seed.
FNC has looked middling at best for 2.5 months, they only started to look good vs KC and great vs Fut and TH (2nd time)
100T looked good but not great for 1.5 months (they looked much better than FNC at kickoff, obviously the bot can't replicate this because the results don't match how they looked since its only 2 games)
then since week 2 or 3 of americas, have looked great, and then as of playoffs looked excellent.
Week 2 onward, 100T is 15-4, and FNC is 17-11
people are going to weigh heavier on CURRENT form or RECENT form than form long ago when betting, and since you made the bot for people to bet on, it must reflect this

#22

Anguibok

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I could understand why 2023 100T could not be that important for 2024 since they had make a change (Well, they still have 3 player here so i'll have a nuanced opinion on that), but FNC roster is the same I see no reason why their 2023 experience shouldn't count in the calcul of the ELO. Even if i'm considering doing a soft reset (/2 the ELO of every teams) FNC would stay a little bit above 100T (even if I admit it would be an almost 50-50.

Soft reseting the ELO may be a solution but that would make AP and CN team even higher

#23

Psion

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because champs was like 9 months ago dude.... you can't value how good a team is using how good they were almost a year ago

#18

Psion

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in order teams they lost to
1 100T
2/3. GenG/FNC
4/5/6 FPX/G2/TH
7 C9
8 Vit

#10

scarlemange

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100 lev
100 th

#29

Anguibok

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-100+152--> 1052
part 4 https://www.vlr.gg/353760/bet-on-odd-part-4/#1

#13

7whanzussjwbsysbbejskaoao

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100 LEV
85 FPX

#30

Anguibok

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-185 --> 1052
part 4 : https://www.vlr.gg/353760/bet-on-odd-part-4/#1