Are NAVI the biggest chokers at Champions '23?

fair, i also think navi were unlucky to some extent which is their group draw
the maps that they won were not too convincing, always very close or overtime
could not capitalize on their lead against loud

a better way to do this might just be to have round win % maybe?

Note: I am not biased against NAVI nor any other team, this is just research based on statistical data and I tried my best to draw reasonable conclusions from it. Not in any way am I a data scientist either, so the data may or may not even be accurate. Everyone can do their own research and draw their own conclusions if they wish, this is just my take on the situation.

Personally I do think there is some bias in the statistic, as this is a systematic flaw in its calculation, not personal bias. However I actually think it's towards teams who play LESS maps because the whole point of the statistic is to find out how many rounds they are able to win PER MAP played, regardless of whether they won or lost that map, so teams who played more maps will actually have more statistically accurate data since there is a larger sample size.

I do agree that this statistic does not speak volumes about whether NAVI choked or not, because at the end of the day, all that can be logically concluded is that NAVI have had to play more rounds and therefore win more rounds in order to finish a map. This suggests that teams have taken NAVI to Overtime more than other teams, or that NAVI have taken teams to Overtime more than other teams, ultimately suggesting that NAVI have struggled to dominantly win over their opponents, or vice-versa. Yes, this could definitely and most likely be due to the group being stacked, however it is necessary to look at the largest round lead NAVI had in the map in order to see if choking was a factor in that map or not. @daehoidar pointed out that NAVI only had 5 match points. Match points are important, however that doesn't say much, because you can lose a huge lead, like 11-3 to 11-12 like LOUD vs FNC during LOCK//IN and it would be a choke, even though no match points were involved.

Let's look at all the maps NAVI lost, and determine the largest lead they had on that map, to see whether they choked the map or not.

1. Map 1 (Bind) vs DRX: Biggest NAVI lead is 6 rounds
   NAVI's biggest lead of the map was on round 10, where the score was 8-2, a 6 round lead. They again had this lead on round 14, where it was 10-4. Then DRX won those 6 rounds back, in a row to even the score at 10-10. NAVI took the lead again after 12-10, however DRX saved 2 map points to force OT. NAVI dropped another map point at 13-12, and DRX eventually won in Double Overtime 13-15. In summary, NAVI lost a 6 round lead, while dropping 3 map points. I would say they choked this map.

2. Map 3 (Lotus) vs DRX: Biggest NAVI lead is 2 rounds
   This map was extremely back and forth. Both teams had small 1-2 round leads throughout the map. Near the end of the map, DRX were up 7-10, and finally had 2 map points at 10-12. NAVI were able to force OT, unfortunately DRX won both OT rounds to close out the map and the match 12-14. I would say this map could have gone either way, NAVI almost came back in the end where DRX slipped up, but ultimately came short.

3. Map 2 (Ascent) vs LOUD: Biggest NAVI lead is 5 rounds
   NAVI have some momentum going into this map, having won map 1 against LOUD on Pearl. NAVI put on the jets immediately, gaining a 6-1 lead after converting their bonus. However LOUD snowballed, the map ended up 6-6 at halftime and later LOUD turned the map in their favour, 7-11. LOUD had 3 map points at 9-12, and ended up closing out 11-13. In my opinion, NAVI slipped up in this map and lost their momentum going into the 2nd half. They tried their best to stay in the game, but again fell just short.

4. Map 3 (Bind) vs LOUD: Biggest NAVI lead is 2 rounds
   The first half ended 5-7 in LOUD's favour, however this was also a back and forth half, with NAVI's biggest lead at 5-3. LOUD extended their lead to 5-9 before NAVI brought it back to 8-9. After several ties in the scoreline, LOUD had map point/match point at 10-12, and again closed out 11-13. This was also a close match where things could have gone either way, but NAVI were unable to snowball their small leads and momentums into something bigger.

Concluding after reviewing these lead changes as well as NAVI's rounds won per map, the high number of rounds won per map can possibly be attributed to the fact that half the time, NAVI were unable to capitalise on their leads and changes in momentum, while the other half was due to the opposing team slipping up and allowing NAVI a chance to come back. NAVI have choked a couple of times, but whether they are the biggest chokers, we'll have to review other teams as well, and I am too lazy to do that so...

n0vi suck at valorant and should retire and/or force simple to carry botgel and cmid