FerahgoTheGreat
Country: United States
Registered: July 25, 2021
Last post: April 1, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Posts: 535
1 •• 8 9 10 11

Yeah I haven't been keeping up with recent rumors or scrims so role swaps could very well mix this up.

posted about 2 years ago

I have predicted the ACS of every player at Champions (except Minty and Zest who probably? wont play).
I have also listed their lifetime ACS and the difference between the two. Keep in mind that there should be a lot of negatives since the level of competition will be higher.
After champions I will make another list showing how wrong I was.
A lot of these are going to be awful predictions so post which picks I will be the most wrong by.

    Player  Team  ACS   Lifetime    Difference
1   ScreaM  TL  280.0   267.8   12.2
2   TenZ    SEN 275.0   269.7   5.3
3   mwzera  KS  271.0   277.9   -6.9
4   cNed    ACE 270.0   262.2   7.8
5   heat    KS  259.0   248.4   10.6
6   Sacy    VKS 255.0   249.4   5.6
7   PTC     FS  246.0   236.0   10.0
8   zeek    ACE 245.0   230.8   14.2
9   yay     NV  245.0   240.4   4.6
10  Patiph  X10 245.0   249.4   -4.4
11  keznit  KRU 241.0   270.1   -29.1
12  nAts    GMB 240.0   230.8   9.2
13  SicK    SEN 238.0   226.4   11.6
14  sheydos GMB 235.0   232.2   2.8
15  JohnOls FS  234.0   245.6   -11.6
16  leaf    C9  233.0   245.6   -12.6
17  saadhak VKS 231.0   218.3   12.7
18  crashie NV  230.0   210.7   19.3
19  BuZz    VS  230.0   239.9   -9.9
20  Jamppi  TL  230.0   224.9   5.1
21  frz     VKS 229.0   214.0   15.0
22  xand    FUR 226.0   246.9   -20.9
23  ShahZam SEN 225.0   215.0   10.0
24  Rb      VS  225.0   232.9   -7.9
25  starxo  ACE 223.0   212.0   11.0
26  xeta    C9  223.0   198.9   24.1
27  Munchk  CR  221.0   224.1   -3.1
28  gtnziN  VKS 220.0   208.7   11.3
29  MaKo    VS  220.0   220.6   -0.6
30  dapr    SEN 219.0   201.2   17.8
31  Witz    TS  219.0   217.7   1.3
32  Nivera  TL  219.0   202.4   16.6
33  Medusa  CR  218.0   212.2   5.8
34  murizzz KS  215.0   215.3   -0.3
35  foxz    X10 215.0   220.3   -5.3
36  Chronic GMB 214.0   225.2   -11.2
37  Bazzi   CR  214.0   216.0   -2.0
38  Xeppaa  C9  214.0   225.4   -11.4
39  Nozwerr FUR 213.0   229.1   -16.1
40  DubsteP TS  211.0   238.3   -27.3
41  Derke   FNC 210.0   254.6   -44.6
42  Lakia   VS  210.0   216.7   -6.7
43  d3ffo   GMB 205.0   219.0   -14.0
44  Victor  NV  205.0   228.5   -23.5
45  Khalil  FUR 202.0   194.1   7.9
46  LAMMYS  FS  201.0   213.6   -12.6
47  stax    VS  196.0   214.7   -18.7
48  Doma    FNC 195.0   230.2   -35.2
49  Fisker  CR  195.0   237.7   -42.7
50  sScary  X10 194.0   215.3   -21.3
51  Klaus   KRU 192.0   197.2   -5.2
52  Marved  NV  190.0   206.3   -16.3
53  JessieV TS  188.0   189.9   -1.9
54  BORKUM  TS  187.0   216.4   -29.4
55  soulcas TL  187.0   201.2   -14.2
56  Quick   FUR 187.0   215.5   -28.5
57  BONECO  ACE 186.0   187.4   -1.4
58  Mazino  KRU 186.0   227.5   -41.5
59  neth    CR  184.0   217.5   -33.5
60  mitch   C9  184.0   204.4   -20.4
61  NagZ    KRU 183.0   231.6   -48.6
62  Sushibo X10 181.0   206.7   -25.7
63  sutecas VKS 180.0   187.1   -7.1
64  ChAlala FS  179.0   181.7   -2.7
65  Redgar  GMB 178.0   172.1   5.9
66  k1Ng    VS  178.0   205.8   -27.8
67  dispens TS  177.0   208.9   -31.9
68  zombs   SEN 175.0   172.1   2.9
69  SuperBu FS  175.0   185.9   -10.9
70  Boaster FNC 175.0   191.7   -16.7
71  Crws    X10 172.0   196.4   -24.4
72  vanity  C9  171.0   191.1   -20.1
73  Kiles   ACE 170.0   196.0   -26.0
74  Magnum  FNC 170.0   213.0   -43.0
75  L1NK    TL  169.0   188.3   -19.3
76  Mistic  FNC 165.0   191.8   -26.8
77  FNS     NV  165.0   181.9   -16.9
78  v1xen   KS  165.0   182.4   -17.4
79  delz1k  KRU 165.0   200.2   -35.2
80  Mazin   FUR 165.0   194.5   -29.5
81  ade     CR  160.0   178.6   -18.6
82  Jhow    KS  145.0   167.7   -22.7
posted about 2 years ago

Oops I had the wrong player inactive. Good catch.

posted about 2 years ago

Maybe Acend vs SEN, idk its more of a how well I think teams are going to do and not an exact bracket placment

posted about 2 years ago

Good point. Umm, Acend Sen finals? I didn't really think it through I just gave my general evaluation.

posted about 2 years ago

Kind of, but I am ready for every NA team but SEN to get destroyed in playoffs.
saving this post to make fun of myself in a couple of weeks

posted about 2 years ago

Here is a random hot (or not idk) take for each team attending champions and how they could defy expectations.
Ignore the fact that I have way too many teams going out in quarters/semis its a bit of a mess lol.

Gambit: Redgar, Chronicle, and d3ffo struggle as Gambit go out in quarters. nAts best ACS at 242. Redgar worst 167.
Acend: Highest placing EU team where BONECOLD hopefully has less than the 0.19 FDpR that he had in Berlin last time. Semis? cNed best ACS at 260. Kiles worst 180.
Fnatic: Not enough firepower, only Derke brakes 200 ACS (barely). Out in groups. Boaster worst 150.
Sentinels: Show that their letdown to some tough strength of schedules was a fluke and make grand finals. TenZ best ACS 270 (290 before the grand finals). zombs worst 185.
Envy: Yay is merely good and Marved, Victor, and FNS struggle (<190 ACS). Out in quarters. Yay best ACS 245. FNS worst 165.
Vikings: Finally find their rhythm, best placing Brazilian team, score one upset either GMB in groups or their quarters matchup. Sacy best ACS 255, at least 3 break 220. Sutecas worst 180.
Keyd Stars: heat and mwzera actually fit together and are both top 10 ACS, but the other 3 struggle, out in groups. mwzera best ACS 270. Jhow worst 150.
Vision Strikers: The korean region is worse than previously thought so VS again disappoint in quarters. BuZz best ACS 235. K1ng worst 175.
Crazy Raccoon: 7 man roster isn't it. The koreans once again do well, but CR cant compete with anyone but TS. Munchkin best ACS 225. Ade worst 140.
X10: Perform the best out of the SEA teams and challenge every team they face. Still don't get out of groups. Patiphan best ACS 235. Crws worst 160.
Team Secret: Beat Crazy Raccoon and lose at least one map by 13-2 or worse against the other teams in the group. Witz best ACS 215. dispenser worst 145.
KRU: keznit carries but KRU aren't competetive against TL or SEN. keznit best ACS 255. NagZ worst 170.
Team Liquid: The brits struggle against the best teams and they go out in semis. ScreaM best ACS 280. L1NK worst 180.
Cloud 9 Blue: Struggles in groups and gets destroyed in quarters 26-8 (2 maps). leaf best ACS 235. vanity/mitch worst 160.
Furia: Look pretty much like Sharks in Reykjavik. Xand best ACS 225. Mazin worst 145.
Full Sense: Fail to match the hype, look worse than X10 in Reykjavik. PTC best ACS 245. SuperBusS worst 150.

Feel free to roast in the comments. It is a proven fact that the quality of the RNG matchmaking of your ranked matches is directly proportional to the inventiveness of the insult.

posted about 2 years ago

An interesting note about Vikings. They only lost to the NA#1 seed and EU#1 seed and were expected to lose both games. I just made a post about strength of schedule where Vikings had the toughest besides Sentinels in Masters 2.

posted about 2 years ago

This post compares the Strength Of Schedule (SOS) for teams in Masters 2 Reykjavik and Masters 3 Berlin.
The strength of schedule is just the average placement of the teams that a team faced. Ties are treated as in the middle of the placement group, for instance, 9-12 ties are all counted as 10.5. The smaller the SOS the tougher the schedule.
SOS is highly seeding and placement dependent so doing better typically means a better SOS.
For Masters 2, Vikings got screwed with a really tough strength of schedule while Crazy Raccoons lost to a pretty weak strength of schedule. TL also had a pretty weak SOS for placing 4th.
The high stats for players like TenZ, Sacy, Derke, and Lakia are more impressive because they faced good opposition.

Masters 2 Reykjavik
Team Matches Maps SOS
1   SEN 4   9   3.13
2   VKS 3   6   4.17
3   FNC 7   16  4.21
4   NU  4   11  4.50
5   V1  4   10  4.63
6   TL  4   9   5.13
7   KRU 3   6   5.17
8   SHK 2   5   5.25
9   X10 3   6   5.67
10  CR  2   4   6.50

The Masters 3 Berlin format of group stages and single elim playoffs makes SOS almost useless since there is very little cross play between groups and a ton of ties. Also group D having a double round robin makes their SOS very different.
This time, CR faced Gambit twice so had a very high SOS. Group A didn't do well in playoffs so their SOS is quite low.

Masters 3 Berlin
 Team  Matches Maps SOS
1   F4Q     4   10  5.00
2   CR      3   6   5.50
3   NV      5   11  5.60
4   100T    4   10  6.00
5   SEN     5   12  6.00
6   GMB     6   15  6.08
7   G2      6   14  6.92
8   HL      2   4   7.00
9   VS      3   7   7.33
10  KRU     4   9   7.63
11  KS      3   6   7.67
12  ACE     4   10  7.75
13  REX     2   5   8.50
14  ZETA    2   4   8.50
15  SMB     3   8   9.17

The SOS is not comparable between tournaments since there are different numbers of teams, but I calculated an adjusted strength of schedule (SOSa). The formula is

(SOS - 1)/(#Teams - 1)

This makes the average SOS for Masters 2 (5.5) and the average SOS for Masters 3 (8.5) the same SOSa of 0.5.
If both Masters 2 and 3 were double elim, this would make the comparison useful, but since they have different formats you can't get a lot of info out of it.

Team  Matches Maps   SOS     SOSa
1   SEN2    4   9   3.13    0.236
2   F4Q3    4   10  5.00    0.267
3   CR3     3   6   5.50    0.300
4   NV3     5   11  5.60    0.307
5   100T3   4   10  6.00    0.333
6   SEN3    5   12  6.00    0.333
7   GMB3    6   15  6.08    0.339
8   VKS2    3   6   4.17    0.352
9   FNC2    7   16  4.21    0.357
10  NU2     4   11  4.50    0.389
11  G23     6   14  6.92    0.394
12  HL3     2   4   7.00    0.400
13  V12     4   10  4.63    0.403
14  VS3     3   7   7.33    0.422
15  KRU3    4   9   7.63    0.442
16  KS3     3   6   7.67    0.444
17  ACE3    4   10  7.75    0.450
18  TL2     4   9   5.13    0.458
19  KRU2    3   6   5.17    0.463
20  SHK2    2   5   5.25    0.472
21  REX3    2   5   8.50    0.500
22  ZETA3   2   4   8.50    0.500
23  X1023   3   6   5.67    0.519
24  SMB3    3   8   9.17    0.544
25  CR2     2   4   6.50    0.611

Basically teams high on the lists faced better opposition than teams lower on the lists.

posted about 2 years ago

Thank you!

posted about 2 years ago

Some players from Plat Chats top 20 that I didn't include:
(Name: All time ACS,| Berlin ACS)
Victor: 228|203
starxo: 212|182
stax: 214|177
Marved: 206|196
MaKo: 220|205
And I definitely think it is some recency bias that some of them were included in Plat Chat's Top 20 and that some players like crashies and chronicle are so high.

posted about 2 years ago

Yeah formatting the chart from an excel spreadsheet makes it hard to read. I probably included too much. The chart is just sorted by LLACS (the ACS at their last LAN event). Everything else is just extra info.

posted about 2 years ago

I am going to make another thread discussing strength of schedule for Masters 2 and 3 but some early eye catchers: Sacy (M2), Derke (M2), and TenZ (M3) had good stats despite facing tough opposition while Patiphan (M2), cNed (M3), and heat (M3) did well but against weaker on average teams. (Placement is not an end all be all of a good team so SOS can only take you so far)

posted about 2 years ago

This thread ranks current champions players by their performance at the last International LAN they attended (Last LAN ACS) or (LLACS).
The ACS listed is lifetime ACS from VLR for a minnimum opponent rating of 1550.
LLAN# is their individual ranking on the ACS charts at the last LAN (M2=masters 2, M3=masters 3).
LLMatch and LLMaps are the number of matches and maps they played during that lan respectively. SOS is the Strength of Schedule (Average placement of teams they faced) for example in masters 2, Patiphan played Vks(5.5), CR (9.5), and FNC(2) for an average SOS of 6.
Placement ties are treated as halfway between the top and bottom (9-12 ties are mathematically all 10.5).
You CANNOT compare SOS between masters 2 and 3 so I made an adjusted (SOSa). If you want to see how I calculated it I will include it at the bottom.
Also Lakia's stats are from Masters 2 with Nuturn since he only played 1 map at masters 3.

Num Name    Team    ACS LLACS   LLAN #  LLMatch LLMaps  LLSOS   LLSOSa
1   heat    KS  248.4   280.3   (1st M3)    3   6   7.67    0.444
2   yay     NV  240.4   280.2   (2nd M3)    5   11  7.20    0.413
3   TenZ    Sen 269.7   269.5    (3rd M3)   5   12  6.00    0.333
4   cNed    Ace 262.2   267.8    (4th M3)   4   10  7.75    0.450
5   nAts    Gmb 230.8   265.9    (5th M3)   6   15  6.08    0.339
6   ScreaM  TL  267.8   265.0   (2nd M2)    4   9   5.13    0.375
7   Derke   Fnc 254.6   260.4   (3rd M2)    7   16  4.21    0.292
8   Patiph  X10 249.4   246.6   (4th M2)    3   6   5.67    0.424
9   murizzz KS  215.3   239.0   (9th M3)    3   6   7.67    0.444
10  BuZz    VS  239.9   238.1   (10th M3)   3   7   7.33    0.422
11  foxz    X10 220.3   235.6   (7th M2)    3   6   5.67    0.424
12  Lakia   VS  216.7   231.5   (9th M2)    4   11  4.50    0.318
13  Sacy    Vks 249.4   230.4    (11th M2)  3   6   4.17    0.288
14  Jamppi  TL  224.9   229.4   (12th M2)   4   9   5.13    0.375
15  keznit  KRU 270.1   227.0   (14th M3)   4   9   7.63    0.442
16  zeek    Ace 230.8   225.7   (15th M3)   4   10  7.75    0.450
17  Chroni  Gmb 225.2   222.9   (16th M3)   6   15  6.08    0.339
18  d3ffo   Gmb 219.0   220.4   (18th M3)   6   15  6.08    0.339
19  SicK    Sen 226.4   220.3   (19th M3)   5   12  6.00    0.333
20  L1NK    TL  188.3   218.7   (15th M2)   4   9   5.13    0.375
21  crash   NV  210.7   218.2   (20th M3)   5   11  7.20    0.413
22  Sheydos Gmb 232.2   212.5   (23rd M3)   6   15  6.08    0.339
23  ShahZaM Sen 215.0   212.3   (24th M3)   5   12  6.00    0.333

For Last LAN Strength of Schedule Adjusted (LLSOSa) the formula is as follows (LLSOS - 1)/(# Teams at event -1). This basically normalizes the placement to the number of teams at the event. For instance playing against the average in masters 2 of SOS=5.5 or the average in masters 3 SOS=8.5 gives the same SOSa of 0.5. SOS is not a super valuable stat but it does let you know if a player beat up bad teams for stat padding and things like that. The format for masters 3 is Incredibly bad for strength of schedule comparisons. There are far too many ties and far too few cross play games between groups.

posted about 2 years ago

Oh wow he has one match on record playing with Jame and getting DQ'd for his VAC ban.

posted about 2 years ago

Yeah every single team has at least two players with competetive CS experience except Vikings.

posted about 2 years ago

Oh dang lol that $100 in prize money.

posted about 2 years ago

Hmm, I am still struggling to find qck's teams/stats from csgo.

posted about 2 years ago

Too bad Bonkar didn't qualify, then Paladins would have 3.

posted about 2 years ago

I did know about Magnum playing Rust but I couldn't find any info about competetive professional experience (if that is even a thing in Rust).

posted about 2 years ago

Comment any discrepancies and I will try to edit them in at some point

posted about 2 years ago

Here is a breakdown of all the players currently listed on the 16 teams attending Champions and the games they played professionally before Valorant.
note This is mostly from a quick google, liquipedia, and HLTV, so there may be some errors.
There are a number of players for which I was unable to locate a previous professional team. They are listed as ? along with the new valorant pros. Feel free to let me know if they have previous experience.

Breakdown by Team:
SEN: ShahZaM SicK dapr TenZ -CSGO, zombs -Apex/OW
C9: mitch vanity Xeppaa leaf xeta -CSGO
NV: Marved FNS yay crashies victor -CSGO
TL: ScreaM Nivera Jamppi soulcas L1NK -CSGO
FNC: Boaster Derke -CSGO, Doma Mistic -Fortnite, Magnum -?
ACEND: BONECOLD Kiles -CSGO, zeek starxo -Fortnite, cNed -Zula
GMB: nAts d3ffo Redgar -CSGO, sheydos -Warface/CSGO, Chronicle -?
VKS: sutecas -CSGO, Sacy -LOL, saadhak frz -Paladins, gtnziN -?
KS: v1xen heat -CSGO, murizzz -Ow/Heroes of the Storm, mwzera -Zula/R6, JhoW -Point Blank/R6
FUR: xand qck -CSGO, Nozwerr -Apex, mazin -Crossfire, Khalil -?
KRU: Mazino keznit -CSGO, Klaus -OW, bnj delz1k NagZ -?
VS: stax Rb k1Ng Zest Lakia -CSGO BuZz -?
CR: neth Fisker -CSGO, Bazzi Munchkin -OW, Medusa Minty -Fortnite, ade -?
X10: foxz Crws -CSGO, Patiphan -OW, sushiboys sScary -?
TS: BORKUM Witz DubsteP Dispenser -CSGO, JessieVash -OW/Dota2
FS: PTC JohnOlsen LAMMYSNAX ChAlalala SuperBusS -CSGO

Breakdown by Game:
CSGO: ShahZaM SicK dapr TenZ mitch vanity Xeppaa leaf xeta Marved FNS yay sheydos
crashies victor ScreaM Nivera Jamppi soulcas Boaster Derke BONECOLD Kiles nAts
d3ffo Redgar sutecas v1xen heat xand Mazino keznit stax Rb k1Ng Zest Lakia
neth foxz Crws BORKUM Witz DubsteP Dispenser PTC JohnOlsen LAMMYSNAX ChAlalala SuperBusS Fisker qck
OW: zombs murizzz Klaus Bazzi Munchkin Patiphan JessieVash
Fortnite: Doma Mistic zeek Medusa Minty starxo
Apex: zombs Nozwerr
Paladins: saadhak frz
Dota2: JessieVash
Crossfire: mazin
Heroes of the Storm: murizzz
LOL: sacy
Zula: cNed mwzera
R6: mwzera JhoW
Point Blank: JhoW
Warface: Sheydos
Unknown or no previous experience: Magnum Chronicle gtnziN Khalil
bnj delz1k NagZ BuZz ade sushiboys sScary

posted about 2 years ago

S - GMB, SEN
A - TL, VS, ACE, NV
B - FNC, C9, VKS, KRU
C - X10, KS, FS, FUR
D - CR, TS

  1. GMB: Berlin Champions, very consistent, but they have been played close to/beaten by a lot of teams. (They probably wont be 6-0 in overtime like in masters 3)
  2. SEN: Bad Berlin performance but one bad tournament does not instantly make them bad.
  3. TL: New roster looks dominant, but the small sample size means they could drop quickly with high variance.
  4. VS: Similar to Gambit, a bit more tactically balanced, but less consistent individual performances.
  5. ACE: The bottom of the roster fell off a bit in Berlin. Bonecold cannot have the fourth highest first deaths per round on the smokes again.
  6. NV: Good but not great up until Berlin, with a repeat performance they will cement themselves in S.
  7. C9: The roles feel a bit cluttered, and the tactics feel a bit like PUG style, but there is potential.
  8. FNC: When the meta caught up, they lacked the firepower especially with Derke not being dominant. Too many bad losses to put them higher.
    9: VKS: Dominant in Brazilian masters 1 and 2. They changed everything in Masters 3 and it didn't work. Despite that they beat Furia twice in BO3 and went to 4OT on map 3 elimination against KS with no practice on their old comps.
  9. KRU: Consistent performances and good placements, but they have yet to pose a challenge to the top teams.
  10. KS: New look roster with Mwzera has a high ceiling and a low floor. Too heavily reliant on the duelist aggression against tactical rosters, but they can beat anyone if they are on.
  11. X10: Consistently beat FS when they had Patiphan, but its been too long since this roster has played tough matches together to know how they will do.
  12. FS: Big performances from a couple players to win the APAC LCQ, but they have lost to a lot of the good SEA teams.
  13. FUR: They have failed to consistently beat any of the good Brazilian teams despite being consistently one of the best.
  14. CR: Very inconsistent and not very impressive so far.
  15. TS: Unfortunate that Paper Rex didn't get this spot. This roster could still beat a number of the lower teams here.
posted about 2 years ago

I have seen many people placing Team Vikings in the lowest tiers of Champions tier lists. I think that they have by far the best resume of any Brazilian team at this event. They dominated Masters 1 and 2 of Brazil, have performed better results wise than any other Brazilian team at the international LANs, and have only stumbled in a single tournament (Brazilian Masters 3 Playoffs) where they only lost to the two teams that qualified.
For reference out of the only two Brazilian wins internationally, SEA #1 X10 (with Patiphan) which Vikings beat is widely considered to be a better team than Zeta Division which Keyd Stars beat. They only lost to the #1 NA and EU seeds in Sentinels and Liquid while Keyd Stars lost to #3 NA Envy and Latam KRU, and Haven Liberty lost to #2 NA 100T and #2 JP CR.
Even in Masters 3 where they seemed uncomfortable with the meta/player roles, they beat Furia twice in BO3 to qualify and almost eliminated Keyd Stars (4OT on map 3).
I don't think that they are necessarily great, but they used to be the meta pushers in Brazil, and stylistically, they are the least reliant on pure duelist aggression.
What are your opinions on Vikings and where they fit with the Brazilian teams and other Champions teams?

posted about 2 years ago

Sorry about that.

posted about 2 years ago

Well this is the first time my pickems bracket has been even close to good but I got the flawless.

posted about 2 years ago

https://www.vlr.gg/pickem/3fb94cc8
My pickems are perfect into the grand finals. Just me and Denggysaurus left with flawless brackets and we picked opposite teams. I have been rooting for guild so if they win I am happy and if they dont I have the only flawless bracket.

posted about 2 years ago

Well it comes down to the grand finals. Denggysaurus and I have the only flawless brackets for EMEA LCQ. I have Liquid winning while he has Guild although I am probably going to root for Guild.
Who will win?
https://www.vlr.gg/pickem/3fb94cc8

posted about 2 years ago

Vikings has a guaranteed spot at champions unless the unrealistic scenario I mentioned happens. (VK is vivo keyd/ keyd stars)

posted about 2 years ago

Vikings (VK needs exactly 2nd in Berlin and HL needs 3-4 to unseat vikings)

posted about 2 years ago
1 •• 8 9 10 11