He forgot that Faze gets Rises points lol

Wrong

A first round Faze loss with a C9 loss ties them at 45. Most recent points get the nod so Faze gets in. Only way Sen gets in if they lose to C9 is if Ghost loses first round (Which is 2 straight losses btw.)

C9 have nothing to lose in the game, so Sen better be drilled and ready to win

It's the fact that Guard didn't have to play groups that really is making this bad. We just need one team to make top 8 that isn't optic though and the guard may get bumped to LCQ.
This will also favor G2 in EMEA.

In a perfect world 100T and Ghost join Optic in Champs. I like both of them a lot

The C9 vs. Sen game is the biggest last place game ever played lol

Depends if Sentinels beats C9, then one of those teams going out first round gets them in. Their game against C9 is basically a must win though

The guard still are in a good spot because of stage 1. Best case scenario for them, Optic makes Copenhagen, and the second NA team fails to perform better than The Guard. Worst case scenario Optic fails to make Copenhagen and both NA teams get more points than the Guard. They would then be the second seeded team in LCQ.

With NRG beating the guard, sentinels is now on the bubble in points for LCQ. Down below shows the NA points standings.
For Sentinels to make it to LCQ, Ghost must either lose first round or Sentinels beat C9 and Ghost lose in round 2.

Assuming LCQ is the same as last year, the top 8 teams in points outside of those qualified for Champions will make it in.
Updated as Stage 2 Points are higher than Stage 1

Place. Team (Minimum Points after Stage 2, Current Points, Max points if out of Playoffs)

1. Optic Gaming (785, 750, x)
2. The Guard (220, 200, 220)
   ------Champions Cutoff----
3. XSET (80, 45, x)
4. Luminosity (70, 35, x)
5. Cloud9 (65, 50, 70)
6. 100 Thieves (50, 15, x)
7. NRG (50, 15, x)
8. Evil Geniuses (45, 10, x)
9. Faze (45, 10, x)
10. Sentinels (45, 30, 50)
    ----Last Chance Qualifier Cut-off----
11. Ghost Gaming (35, 35, x)
12. Version1 (35, 35, 35)
13. Pittsburg Knights (30, 30, 30)
14. TSM (15, 0, 20)

I'd lean Fnatic, but acting like optic wouldn't be in this game, or couldn't even win it, is disingenuous.

There are a lot of good teams in NA. Pick any of the ones making playoffs, and you probably will have a chance for them to make a run.
EMEA is slightly more top heavy, but Fnatic, FPX, Acend, and Guild are teams to cheer for. M3C is a question mark but until they are eliminated I won't say they can't win it all. TL is fun to watch, but they never show up at the biggest moments.
LATAM is Kru's region, but if you want to go against the grain, both Leviatan and E-Xolos have given kru issues in the past.
Brazil is Loud territory. Mibr and NIP are good sleeper picks, but let's be honest, they play second fiddle to LOUD.
Korea is DRX. Don't even bother looking at another team.
Japan should be controlled by ZETA, but both Crazy Raccoon and Northception are teams you can root for.
APAC is interesting, but I doubt anyone dethrones PRX. Xerxia also is a good team. There are a couple others, but I'm not super well versed on APAC's pecking order.

Tenz

Shaz just needs to move away from igl. His individual ability is still pretty strong, but it's obvious being the igl has affected his play a ton.

C9*

You're not wrong.

This Fnatic lineup has only played multiple times on 2 maps. (Icebox 3-0, Ascent 1-1)
The rest is all 1-0s. We won't really know how deep FNC is until playoffs I think. They don't seem uncomfortable on any map though, which is very good.

Split : FNC
Bind : Optic
Ascent : Slight lean Optic.
Icebox : FNC
Breeze : FNC
Fracture : Optic (Easily their best map in M1)
Haven : slight lean FNC

Don't even hate EMEA teams. Their fans are insufferable though.

Yeah, fnatic looking good. Would be shocked in they don't get top 3. Of course they have to show up in playoffs first, so we'll see.

Emea had a superiority complex to the point if they didn't win, it's obviously not their fault.

Typical delusional EU fan.

Sure, but people keep acting like Fnatic was some invincible force that would've beaten everyone.

Considering G2 won't be there to let the region down, maybe you're right.

Assuming nothing bad happens, Copenhagen should be the best, I agree.
I'm not sold on fnatic though, they still lost to G2. FPX probably gets top 3 masters though if not first, I agree.
However, there were no pushovers this Masters, which is more what I'm referring to, Optic didn't have a single easy matchup.

EMEA doing everything they can to discredit Optic. I'm just returning the favor.

Fnatic still lost to G2. Stop trying to pretend G2 doesn't exist. Also every team except maybe NIP was good enough to win it. On average Optic played better teams than the rest of the previous winners.

Disagree with NRG. They have a lot of interesting comps and strategies. They just sucked.

I'm not taking away from them, but acting like optics run isn't impressive is disingenuous.

M3 was Envy's first LAN, and if EMEA was so much better, Acend wouldn't have choked vs. 100T. (Also 100T beat Gambit too)

In Champs, Envy ran into issues with covid.

In M1, EMEA's representatives failed to make it out of the first round.

Optic also had the highest level of competition of any masters, while sentinels had the least.

Optic also had to play significantly more games than any team in any masters.
Not saying I disagree with your list, but I don't think any of the previous champions would have won this past masters.

Yes

Only way guard isn't first seed is if 2 new teams make it in and do better than 8th

Assuming LCQ is the same as last year, the top 8 teams in points outside of those qualified for Champions will make it in.
Updated as Stage 2 Points are higher than Stage 1

Place. Team (Minimum Points after Stage 2, Current Points, Max points if out of Playoffs)

1. Optic Gaming (785, 750, x)
2. The Guard (215, 200, x)
   ------Champions Cutoff----
3. XSET (80, 45, x)
4. Luminosity (70, 35, x)
5. Cloud9 (65, 50, 70)
6. 100 Thieves (50, 15, x)
7. Evil Geniuses (45, 10, x)
8. Faze (45, 10, x)
9. Sentinels (45, 30, 50)
10. Ghost Gaming (35, 35, x)
    ----Last Chance Qualifier Cut-off----
11. Version1 (35, 35, 35)
12. NRG (30, 15, x)
13. Pittsburg Knights (30, 30, 30)
14. TSM (15, 0, 20)

Stage 1 and Stage 2 has different points awarded, I made the mistake of assuming they were the same.

Just realized they changed the points for stage 2. RIP lmao. Unfair to teams like V1 and sen, but ok

Sen is at 30. If they get 5th, they get 15, if they get 6th, they get 10. Sen can only score 40 or 45

Assuming LCQ is the same as last year, the top 8 teams in points outside of those qualified for Champions will make it in.
Updated as Stage 2 Points are higher than Stage 1

Place. Team (Minimum Points after Stage 2, Current Points, Max points if out of Playoffs)

1. Optic Gaming (785, 750, x)
2. The Guard (215, 200, x)
   ------Champions Cutoff----
3. XSET (80, 45, x)
4. Luminosity (70, 35, x)
5. Cloud9 (65, 50, 70)
6. 100 Thieves (50, 15, x)
7. Evil Geniuses (45, 10, x)
8. Faze (45, 10, x)
9. Sentinels (45, 30, 50)
10. Ghost Gaming (35, 35, x)
    ----Last Chance Qualifier Cut-off----
11. Version1 (35, 35, 35)
12. NRG (30, 15, x)
13. Pittsburg Knights (30, 30, 30)
14. TSM (15, 0, 20)

VLRgg
https://www.vlr.gg/vct/standings

I was wrong lol

If you put them in group A or give them a slightly more favorable schedule, then yeah, they're probably in playoffs.

What was the tiebreaker?

Sen will probably need to bootcamp into LCQ, but if they put 100% effort in then sure.

Kinda an overreaction imo. NA has been very competitive this year, and Optic didn't exactly make it to masters flawlessly last stage. And the Guard had one bad game in Masters, they should've beat Optic in the first one.

Link?

Not really much copium. All 3 very possible and only 1 needs to happen. The real copium is that they have a chance once LCQ happens.

Top 4 Ghost + Sen win over C9 is a tie, so yes.

The playoff teams have been decided. Cloud9 and Sentinels have been eliminated and will face each other in a meaningless game.

Wouldn't call it meaningless as the 5 points sentinels can gain for LCQ is huge.

If it's map, they need Optic to 2-0 LG, and Faze needs to 2-0 EG. This will force the third tiebreaker.

Three way tie between Optic/LG, EG, and Faze. Depending on 2nd tiebreaker, Faze could get 2nd-4th.

At least they have something to build on now.Way better now than they were earlier this year.