day 1 playoffs analysis

Since my post last night was quite well received, here I am giving my thoughts on tomorrow's matches no matter how wrong I might have been... (I got X10C right though okay :D)

As I mentioned last time as well, my opinion is potentially more valuable because I am a pro in EMEA game changers for chatbanned, where we recently finished back to back top 5, but honestly these games are so unpredictable I could be completely wrong, hopefully it's just a fun little read no matter what actually happens in the matches ^>^

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Game One: Acend vs Team Secret

ACE -haven (perma-ban I believe)
TS -bind (acend's best map, and they banned it vs vikings so it's not like they don't want to ever ban it)

ACE +fracture? (no clue what they pick tbh, they haven't been good on breeze and it's not like they've ever been that good on split or ascent)
TS +icebox (strong map for them for sure, beat gambit and vikings here while acend aren't the best at it)

ACE -split/ascent (as already said, they aren't the best on these maps)
TS -breeze (just looked at winrates for this tbh lol but it is super low for TS and they've only played it a few times so it seems quite unlikely they'd want to play it now, it's not like ACE were that awful vs VK)

Last map: Split/Ascent

Overall, it's easy to say that Acend are the better team because they've performed so well in the past etc, but with them not having bind to play, I honestly don't think that they have a high chance of winning any of the maps in play. A big factor to remember as well is that the games will be back on stage, where Acend haven't played well on here nor at Masters 3. Therefore I'm going to actually pred Team Secret to win 2-1 :D

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Game Two: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid

TL -fracture (seems to be their perma-ban, also C9 were good on it vs FNC ofc)
C9 -ascent (bad map for them, really good for TL)

TL +haven (strong for them and a map C9 seems to not really play)
C9 +icebox (TL's old perma-ban and a good one for C9)

TL -bind (not their best, and it's probably quite risky to play the map for the first time in such a big game against a team with no demos to review)
C9 -split (they probably wanna go for breeze over split because it's been better for them in the past and they need to pick with confidence to take the series)

Last map: Breeze

I think Haven is gonna pretty heavily favour Liquid where the others will be quite 50/50. It is maybe a bit of a question mark if TL will be at the same level with all being on stage now, but I don't think it'll be a negative factor at all, where it somewhat seems to be with C9 (or at least it was earlier in the tournament). Gonna say 2-1 for Liquid, but it should be super close and good to watch.

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As I already said, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong on both predictions, I think both games are gonna be SUPER 50/50 tomorrow, and I'm excited to see how it goes. Please let me know your thoughts as well, I'd love to have a chat about it! (Because I'm sure I'm wrong on some things, I don't have perfect knowledge of these teams :D)

thanks

Might be the copium speaking but c9 2-1 liquid with vanity knifing soulcas 3 times

why you have verified sign

tl;dr

not sure how high are u right now, but TL vs C9 isnt 50/50 game. no matter how biased i am towards c9. but fnatic & TL are in different level from other teams.

JADE U SHOULD'VE PREDICTED ACEND 2 0 TS FOR THE JINXXXXX NOOOOOO

This tournament is showing me that the winner team is the one which have the best mental and better fundamentals. Good Strats, in general, are only decisive when theres close matchups. For this reason im more confident that Liquid will beat C9, given that i feel liquid is better strat wise. However, about Acend vs TS, i feel like TS have the better mental , so i would predict them to win

guys i think she was signed to fnatic (look at her flair)
correct me if im wrong tho

sorry i doubted you yesterday queen

I really enjoy reading these posts - do keep these coming.
Get ready for a long reply ...

tl;dr -
ACE/TS : Icebox for TS, breeze for ACE (close game), ascent decider (close game) --> Overall a super close series, Acend looking kind of weak shaky this tourney, Envy didn't perform against them so this is solely from the VK series + maybe some of red bull home ground.
If fracture is third map - it's easier to say Acend would win on a map where I haven't seen TS play, but I hope for a super close game here in any case.
-->
If ascent decider, TS 2-1
If fracture decider, ACE 2-1

TL/C9 : TL 2-1 if map picks are as you said, unless c9 take a decisive icebox with leaf completely going OFF to take momentum into the third map and get a solid first half, but closing out against TL isn't easy. Third map is sure to be a banger in this case.

Full Post:

That first one was hype - I love to see others joining me on the TS hype train - I had said it before in a post, I believe, but I'm not too happy with how Acend have played. I think I mentioned yesterday that Envy looked AWFUL against them, so I'm not taking their "clean" win against them as a positive for Acend - but rather how shaky they were against VK as a big weakness - while I do think they'll pull a lot more out of the strat book here, your map bans make the most sense for me.

Not only do secret look decent on haven - but it is indeed, Acend's perma-ban (unless they have some crazy stuff on it that they're hiding)
Secret's best map is by far icebox, and after the bind ban (if they don't ban bind, Acend maybe 2-0, but this would honestly be so shocking), I can see a clean win on here if they keep cNed grounded - which they seemed to be able to do against d3ffo in the first round.

I actually wouldn't be too surprised if Acend pick up a breeze here, a wide open map for a team with crazy aim - and their newer comps I could see this actually working quite well for them.

I don't see them picking a fracture off the bat, fracture as a decider however? That's left to Secret to decide I guess.

I could see a clean 13-8 or better on icebox followed by a close 10-13 on breeze. Fracture as a third map is impossible to predict, I'd have to give a 13-10 either way as I believe TS get the choice of side here, but I'd squeak it out to Acend ; 2-1

Ascent being a third map, however, I can see TS taking - Acend looked rough on it against a super shaky Envy - close map in any case // TS 2-1

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Liquid vs Cloud 9
MY.
GOD.
TL looking super good with the brother buff, and if leaf and xeppaa aren't in full form this series, this should be a 2-0. I don't fully agree with the 50/50 that you gave seemed to give it, albeit not for haven, but if cloud 9 take a decisive icebox, I can see them carrying the momentum to a solid first half on haven (or breeze)

Cloud 9 are looking super good, and with a close series against a favourite for this tournament in Fnatic, then looking dominant for at least the first half in every map against VS, who was in an interesting, to put it lightly match against fnatic, I would really love to see a rematch between those two teams, but I think my flair says it all here - I do have TL in a close series. 2-1 either way.

Bold Take: Winner of this game is making finals.

I'll even give a sneak-peak into my reply for the post you'll likely bring us tomorrow:
GMB are my heavy favourites over X10, but I do hope for another SEA team to keep it close against them. I'm not going to give this a 2-0 by any means ^-^
KRU taking only 1 gun round through a whole series against FNC again? Nah. but 2-0 FNC.

Thank you for these threads ^-^

Imagine thinking anyone would read this armchair analyst grubble. You basically said every team has a chance to win. What actual insight did you provide in that wall of text lmao

Another tough matchup for TS but i believe leezzggoww TS!!🔥🔥

I agree with most things but would favor c9 over liquid on haven

Hot takes, it would be a shock to the community if secret beats acend (i chose acend in my pickems but i want TS to win 😅)