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Different ways to approach first kills

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#1
capital_d_colon

Using this data set: https://x.com/FlynVAL/status/1706664976897933619?s=20

Some definitions out of the gate:
FK: First kill
FD: First Death
UFD: Untraded first death, a first death that isn't traded in the first 3 seconds
TFK: True First kill, a first kill that isn't traded in the first 3 seconds

Formulas:
First involvements per game: 24*(fk+fd)/rounds

  • A metric used to show the frequency of first fights taken per game.

FK sr% (DEFAULT): (100*[FK)]/([FK]+[FD])

  • This aims to find the percentage of all first fights taken that player obtains first blood.

FK sr% POSITIVE: 100*[TFK]/(FK+FD)

  • This aims to find the percentage of all first fights taken that result in a man advantage

FK sr% NEUTRAL+: 100*([FK]+([FD]-[UFD]))/([FK]+[FD])

  • This aims to find the percentage of all first fights taken that do not result in a man disadvantage

Top 15 players based on first involvements per game

| Player    | first involvements per game | FK  sr% NEUTRAL+ | FK sr% (DEFAULT) | FK sr% POSITIVE |
|-----------|-----------------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------------|
| Virtyy    |                       11.04 |          56.5217 |          46.7391 |         40.2174 |
| wackie    |                     9.75342 |           58.427 |           47.191 |         43.8202 |
| tomaszy   |                     9.45882 |          64.1791 |          58.9552 |         54.4776 |
| MiniBoo   |                     9.10843 |          50.7937 |          46.0317 |         34.9206 |
| Tuli      |                     8.95522 |          61.3333 |               44 |         26.6667 |
| tex       |                     8.92419 |           76.699 |          65.0485 |         45.6311 |
| aLerT     |                     8.88511 |          55.1724 |          49.4253 |         40.2299 |
| koalanoob |                     8.50794 |          63.4328 |               50 |         29.1045 |
| JA        |                     8.39216 |          65.4206 |          56.0748 |         45.7944 |
| Jemkin    |                     8.35068 |          63.7795 |          56.6929 |         46.4567 |
| Keiko     |                     8.22472 |          62.2951 |           57.377 |              50 |
| Juicy     |                      8.1547 |          62.6016 |          52.8455 |         47.1545 |
| alvar     |                      8.0829 |          67.6923 |          56.9231 |         52.3077 |
| Masic     |                     8.07373 |          56.1644 |          53.4247 |         46.5753 |
| TakaS     |                      8.0367 |          61.6438 |          52.7397 |         41.0959 |

Interestingly 54% of tomaszy's first fight result in him getting a true kill.
Tex has an incredibly high 76.699% of first fights resulting in him either getting a kill or being traded.

Smaller tables:
Top 3 based on FK sr% NEUTRAL+:

| Player    | first involvements per game | FK  sr% NEUTRAL+ |
|-----------|-----------------------------|------------------|
| rubkkoide |                      4.1791 |          82.8571 |
| tex       |                     8.92419 |           76.699 |
| Kiles     |                      3.3253 |           73.913 |

Top 3 based on FK sr% (DEFAULT)

| Player | first involvements per game | FK sr% (DEFAULT) |
|--------|-----------------------------|------------------|
| Kiles  |                      3.3253 |          69.5652 |
| DaviH  |                     4.37647 |           66.129 |
| tex    |                     8.92419 |          65.0485 |

Top 3 based on FK sr% POSITIVE

| Player | first involvements per game | FK sr% POSITIVE |
|--------|-----------------------------|-----------------|
| caydeN |                     2.19178 |              65 |
| Kiles  |                      3.3253 |         60.8696 |
| ShadoW |                     1.88764 |         60.7143 |

ok cool.
if there are any mistakes or errors in reasonings please let me know.
or any extra explanation or even graph you guys would want.

#2
greedeetv
0
Frags
+

W

#3
capital_d_colon
0
Frags
+

ty

#4
temi
0
Frags
+

Nice post

#5
UBClears
2
Frags
+

Nice but you should take into account that First Kill is weighted differently when you are Attacking vs Defending.

On Attacking, any first kill is great even if you get traded, because a 4v4 favors Attacking.

On defense, a first kill that’s traded is a net positive for the Attackers.

#6
capital_d_colon
0
Frags
+

That is a very good point.
Currently i don't have access to stats split across defence and attack sides.

It's something i had thought about before in a different post. Just failed to mention it here.

Only drawback is that the dataset is for all rounds not just atk rounds, so it's not a completely accurate representation of how successful a player is at entrying.
https://www.vlr.gg/276525/flyns-dataset

I do have a feeling it could inflate some opers first kill stats.

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