TLDR: My predictions got more accurate as the tournament went on. After the first round I was wrong by an average of 29.62 ACS, after the groups I was wrong by 23.25 per player, and now I am only wrong by 21.65.
Before Champions I predicted the ACS of every player at Champions and I made posts analyzing my predictions after the first round and after the group stage.
Here is the final analysis of my ACS predictions.
There will be a lot of negatives because I overpredicted the total ACS. My predictions have an average ACS of 206.9 while the actual was 196.2.
The Good: leaf, Derke, and a number of players from SEA did significantly better than I predicted.
The Bad: PTC, mwzera, frz, TenZ, Rb, Jamppi all did worse than I predicted.
The interesting: ade was my fourth biggest overprediction despite me picking him to finish second to last in ACS. Big yikes. I was only 0.1 away from soulcas.
Shoutout to ArgieGR8ArgieB8ArgieM8 for some big brain stats and graphs on my previous posts.
Player ACS Champs Diff Rank R Diff
1 ScreaM 280.0 251.8 -28.2 5 -4
2 TenZ 275.0 225.2 -49.8 18 -16
3 mwzera 271.0 200.4 -70.6 34 -31
4 cNed 270.0 229.5 -40.5 13 -9
5 heat 259.0 264.8 5.8 2 3
6 Sacy 255.0 253.7 -1.3 4 2
7 PTC 246.0 168.8 -77.2 66 -59
8 yay 245.0 242.7 -2.3 7 1
9 Patiph 245.0 237.2 -7.8 10 -1
10 zeek 245.0 229.3 -15.7 14 -4
11 keznit 241.0 246.3 5.3 6 5
12 nAts 240.0 210.5 -29.5 23 -11
13 SicK 238.0 203.3 -34.7 29 -16
14 sheydos 235.0 191.1 -43.9 45 -31
15 JohnOls 234.0 192.0 -42.0 43 -28
16 leaf 233.0 263.4 30.4 3 13
17 saadhak 231.0 229.0 -2.0 15 2
18 BuZz 230.0 237.4 7.4 9 9
19 crashi 230.0 205.3 -24.7 26 -7
20 Jamppi 230.0 187.3 -42.7 50 -30
21 frz 229.0 169.3 -59.7 65 -44
22 xand 226.0 231.2 5.2 12 10
23 ShahZ 225.0 226.0 1.0 17 6
24 Rb 225.0 174.5 -50.5 62 -38
25 starxo 223.0 199.9 -23.1 35 -10
26 xeta 223.0 179.9 -43.1 58 -32
27 Munchk 221.0 183.3 -37.7 54 -27
28 gtnziN 220.0 190.9 -29.1 46 -18
29 MaKo 220.0 186.0 -34.0 52 -23
30 Witz 219.0 204.6 -14.4 28 2
31 Nivera 219.0 197.7 -21.3 37 -6
32 dapr 219.0 195.9 -23.1 39 -7
33 Medusa 218.0 193.5 -24.5 41 -8
34 foxz 215.0 199.9 -15.1 36 -2
35 murizzz 215.0 173.8 -41.2 63 -28
36 Chronic 214.0 236.9 22.9 11 25
37 Bazzi 214.0 205.0 -9.0 27 10
38 Xeppaa 214.0 195.1 -18.9 40 -2
39 Nozwerr 213.0 205.8 -7.2 25 14
40 DubsteP 211.0 237.7 26.7 8 32
41 Derke 210.0 278.1 68.1 1 40
42 Lakia 210.0 203.0 -7.0 30 12
43 d3ffo 205.0 226.9 21.9 16 27
44 Victor 205.0 162.3 -42.7 72 -28
45 Khalil 202.0 196.5 -5.5 38 7
46 LAMMYS 201.0 213.0 12.0 21 25
47 stax 196.0 192.6 -3.4 42 5
48 Fisker 195.0 206.5 11.5 24 24
49 Doma 195.0 202.1 7.1 31 18
50 sScary 194.0 165.1 -28.9 70 -20
51 Klaus 192.0 174.9 -17.1 61 -10
52 Marved 190.0 200.9 10.9 33 19
53 JessieV 188.0 201.7 13.7 32 21
54 Quick 187.0 188.7 1.7 48 6
55 soulcas 187.0 187.1 0.1 51 4
56 BORKUM 187.0 165.8 -21.2 69 -13
57 Mazino 186.0 215.3 29.3 20 37
58 BONECO 186.0 181.2 -4.8 56 2
59 mitch 184.0 184.6 0.6 53 6
60 neth 184.0 164.3 -19.7 71 -11
61 NagZ 183.0 191.7 8.7 44 17
62 Sushibo 181.0 222.8 41.8 19 43
63 sutecas 180.0 182.9 2.9 55 8
64 ChAlala 179.0 139.5 -39.5 81 -17
65 k1Ng 178.0 177.3 -0.7 60 5
66 Redgar 178.0 162.2 -15.8 73 -7
67 dispens 177.0 212.0 35.0 22 45
68 SuperB 175.0 179.3 4.3 59 9
69 Boaster 175.0 166.9 -8.1 68 1
70 zombs 175.0 157.4 -17.6 78 -8
71 Crws 172.0 170.5 -1.5 64 7
72 vanity 171.0 160.1 -10.9 76 -4
73 Magnum 170.0 188.2 18.2 49 24
74 Kiles 170.0 157.5 -12.5 77 -3
75 L1NK 169.0 181.1 12.1 57 18
76 FNS 165.0 188.9 23.9 47 29
77 Mazin 165.0 161.0 -4.0 74 3
78 delz1k 165.0 160.6 -4.4 75 3
79 v1xen 165.0 149.2 -15.8 79 0
80 Mistic 165.0 145.6 -19.4 80 0
81 ade 160.0 101.8 -58.2 82 -1
82 Jhow 145.0 168.2 23.2 67 15
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